There are suddenly plenty of pandemic experts with their own ideas of what should be done or could have been done better but I believe we have to trust the science and the specialists behind this response and stay firm on the course we find ourselves.
As we watch our economy crumble around us folk, including one of my sons, losing their jobs, vegetables and meat going to waste from outlets that aren’t allowed to operate while people queue to get similar at supermarkets, golf club greens going to ruin and many other unanticipated problems, one could easily lose their nerve.
But in a sudden crisis it is better to act quickly and get 80% right than to delay in the hope of getting everything right. That’s what we are watching happen here.
By trying to flatten the curve so our health system doesn’t collapse, as we are observing overseas, means the system can deal with an influx and continue to help and save people from heart issues, strokes, cancer, mental health issues and all the other diseases that have not suddenly disappeared.
I’m interested to get some historical comparison to this epidemic compared to those of the past but just trying to find out the actual death rate is problematic.
In early March the World Health Organisation was quoting death rates about 3% but latest thinking is that because many, mostly younger, people have very mild cases that aren’t even reported the actual rate is a lot lower with estimates ranging from 0.5% to 2%. The range is likely explained by how good different countries are at identifying mild cases.
So, let’s assume 1% is the death rate of this virus. Or a more comfortable way of looking at this is that the average person has a 99% chance of survival unless you are elderly with underlying health issues. In a country like the United States 60% of adults have an underlying medical condition.
Seasonal flu has a mortality rate a tenth of that at 0.1% but the Spanish flu of 1918 was particularly contagious and killed 2%. It caused up to 50 million deaths.
I note even in 1918 social distancing was practised and a study has shown US cities that did it well had lower death rates and better protected their economies. The lesson being that pandemics depress the economy, public health interventions do not. That should give us some comfort about our course of action.
The plague of Justinian in 541AD also killed up to 50m people and is thought to have hastened the fall of the Roman Empire, leading to the Dark Ages. Perhaps this pandemic might put pressure on globalisation?
In 1520 a smallpox plague killed 56m and an estimated 90% of native Americans. Smallpox continued to kill 400,000 people annually in Europe alone and led to the development of the world’s first vaccine in 1796 by Edward Jenner. Like many others of my vintage I still have the small scar on my arm from this vaccine and after a concerted vaccination effort by the WHO smallpox was finally eradicated from the world in 1979. The only disease to ever be eradicated. Tell these facts to your anti-vaxer mates.
But the standout pandemic remains the Black Death or Bubonic Plague of 1347 to 1351. It killed an estimated 200m people at a time when there were only 400m humans on the planet and, consequently, wiped out half the population of Europe. It took 200 years for that population to recover.
Imagine the devastation and disruption to human society at that time. Far greater than what we are seeing.
So, we are dealing with a virus that can kill 1% but we see there have been viruses that can kill 50% and indeed Ebola, which is still out there, has a death rate of 50%.
The surprising fact is that we haven’t been scenario planning for just such an event as we are seeing now.
Perhaps it is a practice run for something more serious in humanity’s future, just as it has been in our past.
We are not great at learning from history. Maybe this time we will be.
