Private ewe sales so far had set a base with young sheep selling from $130 to $170 and with export ewes making $80-$100 at the works there was another base, livestock broker Peter Walsh said.
As the annual ewe fairs got under way Walsh said while there was an indication there would be plenty on offer the prices would be only as good as the money available.
“The outlook is good but while farmers have done a hell of a good job to protect the industry it’s now up to the exporters to do their bit,” Walsh said.
“We want the enthusiasm of the younger generation but it needs to be sustainable for them, as it does for these farmers re-stocking from the drought.
“The old adage of getting your money back on a two-tooth in the first year, despite the farmer getting lambing to 150%, with lambs at $80 and wool at an average $10 per head, it’s not cutting the mark,” Walsh said.
While conditions had improved and South Canterbury was officially no longer in drought, North Canterbury remained in local drought.
With soil moisture conditions improving, MPI decided not to extend South Canterbury’s drought classification at the end of December.
The decision marked the end of nearly two years of tough conditions for farmers.
Federated Farmers South Canterbury president Mark Adams said after being on a knife edge in spring, the drought ended with a full stop in November.
Stock numbers, the quality of stock feed and ensuring a feed stockpile were now the big issues for farmers.
“We need to put some resilience back into the system,” Adams said.
With South Canterbury out the South Island drought had been scaled down from medium to local, Federated Farmers North Canterbury meat and fibre chairman Dan Hodgen said.
That had some advantage in that the response was not quite so prescriptive and a little more flexible but more of the job had fallen on the local drought committee.
Regular rain meant that while the drought hadn’t broken there was feed around, stock was in good condition and most farmers had had opportunity to get feed stacked up in the spring.
“The contractors have had a busy season, which they haven’t had for a couple of years so they are smiling,” Hodgen said.
“But soil moisture remains very low and a couple of weeks of norwesters and hot weather and we will be back in a difficult situation.”
While there had been a morale boost there was still a way to go.
“Rainfall has been very variable but the one consistency is we haven’t had a drought-breaking rain – it’s still dry, which we are sick of,” Hodgen said.
Farmers remained cautious and he didn’t expect a restocking procurement war.
Having ditched all his cattle and the prime lambs already away to the works, Hodgen said his farm was 80% stocked.
“There will be farmers trying to up numbers but I certainly won’t be racing out to buy up.
“Things have changed but I won’t be taking any risks.”
The next two months would be critical.
“If we can get an average autumn we will go into winter in an average space but that’s as far as the confidence can go at this stage,” Hodgen said.
