Total sheep numbers were estimated to be 27.34 million on June 30, a 0.9% fall from the 27.58m a year earlier but that figure was a 5% fall on 2015.
Though ewe numbers were lower than a year earlier this year’s lamb crop should be higher, according to Beef + Lamb NZ, largely because more ewe hoggets were mated and the ongoing productivity gains in the flock.
Total hogget numbers were well up as part of the flock rebuild.
There were also specific reasons for some of the fall in overall numbers, B+LNZ chief economist Andrew Burtt said.
There were anecdotal accounts that older farmers in several regions were looking for less labour-intensive livestock activity and reducing breeding ewe numbers and running more trade beef cattle.
As well, a slow recovery from last year’s facial eczema in parts of the North Island had reduced breeding ewe numbers.
The estimated lamb crop this season was 23.53m, a gain of 260,000 or 1.1% on the 23.27m last year. That was from 17.8 m breeding ewes and 8.71m hoggets.
Lambing was well under way and full numbers would be collated in November, when the survival rate was known after docking was finished.
The June 30 sheep numbers last year were 18.14m breeding ewes and 8.56m hoggets so ewe numbers were down 1.9% but hogget numbers were 1.7% higher.
At the same time, beef cattle numbers had risen by 2.8% over the year, to 3.63m from 3.53m.
The B+LNZ charts showed that ahead of the lambing and calving season, total sheep numbers had been estimated to fall to 27.34m at June 30 from just under 45m in 1998-99 but with a lower rate of decline than previously.
Beef cattle numbers had fallen from a high of about 4.6m in the 2003 to 2005 period.
Of the 17.8m breeding ewe population on June 30, 8.69m were in the North Island and 9.11m in the South Island. Hogget number estimates were 4.55m and 4.16m respectively.
Features of the survey were the fall in sheep numbers in the northern North Island and in Taranaki-Manawatu, especially on hill-country, and a sharp rise in cattle numbers in Canterbury and Otago. Southland also had a significant rise in cattle numbers and a matching fall in sheep numbers.
That area was an example of farmers continuing to look for alternatives to sheep because they were labour-intensive and the poor wool prices providing another incentive to switch.
There was a rebuilding of sheep numbers on the large East Coast of the North Island, despite ewe numbers being down 2% at 4.3m because of the impact of facial eczema in flocks last year.
That impact was more than offset by an estimated 14% lift in hogget numbers to 2.72m. Most of them were ewe hoggets kept by farmers choosing to do that rather than buy in replacement ewes and risk further exposure to facial eczema.
Total East Coast sheep numbers lifted to an estimated 7.13m from 6.94m. The region was the biggest for total numbers, ahead of Canterbury-Marlborough with 5.92m.
This region was gradually restocking after the several years of drought and the numbers, again boosted by hogget retention, were slightly up on 2015 and 2016 though still well down on pre-drought levels.
Canterbury-Marlborough breeding ewe numbers slipped marginally to 3.48m with hogget numbers up just over 2% to 2.17m, mainly trade hoggets being carried through winter, Burtt said.
Some farmers also carried more lambs into winter to take advantage of the improved feed levels.
Otago breeding ewe numbers dropped 1% to 2.97m, with a greater fall in Southland, down 3% to 2.65m, and hogget numbers there also declined. Otago also registered a slight fall but there was a slight increase in replacement ewe hoggets, indicating a possible slowing of the steady decline in breeding ewe numbers in recent years, the report said.
Otago had an estimated 4.3m sheep at June 30 and Southland 3.6m.
Northern North Island breeding ewe numbers fell 2.6% to 2.37m with a continuing trend of a decline on the easier hill country.
In Taranaki-Manawatu there were declines in hard hill and hill-country maternal flocks with ewe numbers down 3.6% to 2.01m, Burtt said.
Hogget numbers also declined over both wider areas as limited supply led to high prices, encouraging farmers to quit their finishing lambs earlier than usual.
