“NZ data suggests that their lamb kill in the run-up to the key Easter period has been lower than last year and exports to the UK and Europe have been running significantly below last year’s levels,” Ashworth said during a press briefing in Edinburgh that focused on how Scotland’s livestock farmers might fare over the next two years of Brexit negotiations.
While he believed it would be “pretty much business as usual” for the UK’s overseas meat trade in general, he agreed British sheep prices, since the turn of the year, had been at their lowest level for four years.
“Prime sheep prices have received a boost in the past week, however, as the key Easter holiday approaches,” he said, highlighting NZ’s possible influence on that improvement.
“This has brought us, in fact, within touching distance of last year’s price.”
Speaking as Quality Meat Scotland’s head of economics services, Ashworth said the poor trade so far this year had been “influenced by a heavier-than-normal carry-over of hoggets, many of which have been presented to the market at heavy weights and high fat cover”.
Even now, despite the reported fall in NZ supplies, the future beyond Easter didn’t look too clever.
“The UK lamb kill has been increasing through February and may run ahead of year-earlier levels later in the season,” he said.
“Accordingly, trade volumes may increase in the next couple of months and potentially this could affect farmgate prices at the start of the new season.”
The UK December farm census suggested a modest 1% increase in breeding ewe numbers across the UK, though the Scottish breeding ewe flock was reported to have declined in size. Overall, the 2017 UK lamb crop was unlikely to be significantly different from last year.
“Nevertheless, the marketplace looks challenging with UK sheep meat consumption remaining constrained by the relative competitiveness of the lamb on retail shelves,” Ashworth said.
“France remains a challenging market with the continuation of its long-term decline in consumption.
“Opportunities do exist in northern Europe, however, although exchange rates will play a significant part in terms of allowing Scottish and UK exports to remain price competitive.”
