The latest analysis forecasts South Island lamb processing in April and May to be pushed back another week to five weeks though the backlog is expected to be cleared by the end of May.
In the North Island no further delays are expected on top of what farmers are already experiencing.
Lambs are being prioritised over cull ewes and there are significant backlogs with ewes.
Bobby calf processing is unlikely to be affected becasue it is usually done from July when sheep processing is generally over.
Farmers wanting cattle processed are being told to talk to their processor because each will have different plans around prime or manufacturing beef.
An extra week’s delay on top of existing backlogs of prime steers and heifers in both islands is forecast for May and that delay is expected to carry on to June in the North Island.
Bull processing is well advanced but farmers still with bulls will likely be caught in the cattle backlog.
Cow processing, predominantly dairy cull cows, is forecast to be delayed by an extra week in both islands in May, followed by a return to normal processing in June.
That situation is worse in the South Island where the bulk of dairy cull cows are still on farms.
B+LNZ chief executive Sam McIvor says delays are already especially severe in drought-affected areas where farmers have not been able to move stock to slaughter and in Southland where there are large backlogs and the autumn pasture growth window is closing rapidly.
Farmers need to talk to their processor to understand exactly how the extra delays will affect them.
“The processing capacity constraint is also having a knock-on effect on dairy farmers who rely on grazing off and those farmers who look to move weaners and other young stock through to finishers. Some of those avenues are closing due to the backlog.”
The analysis reinforces the need for farmers to have a feed plan.
Meat Industry Association chief executive Sirma Karapeeva says processors are bedding in physical distancing and looking at ways to optimise their operations to better meet demand.
The sector is working with the Ministry for Primary Industries to see whether changes can be made to the new procedures, including what could happen under alert level three to allow an increase in throughput without compromising employee safety.
“Processors and exporters are also moving inventory out of cold storage to free space for incoming stock. That depends on commercial contracts for export orders and logistics flows, both of which are experiencing some disruption.
“There are significant differences in terms of how far each region is through the processing season and every processor and plant has variations in set-up for ovine versus bovine and the class of animal they process.”
