Alternative protein pioneers Beyond Burger and Impossible Burger will have their products available throughout US grocery, restaurant and food service outlets within five years and throughout China soon after.
Antedote, a San Francisco company, compiled the report and found manufacture of laboratory-grown cellular meat is three to five years away from launching a pilot plant and five to 10 years away from scaled-up production.
Beef muscle cuts such as steak are unlikely to be replicated and the alternative protein companies are yet to target sheep meat.
In developed countries consumers are reducing meat consumption for ideological reasons and as a backlash against what they see as broken food systems, factory farming and big food.
The report said consumers talk about protein rather than specific food and acceptance of alternative protein products is such the US casual dining and fast food industry says it will be added to menus if it can get product and there is demand.
Manufacturers see reducing reliance on animals for food as a way to address concern for the environment and climate change and also to feed the world.
Investors and founders of these companies are also driven by philanthropic reasons and consequently are content to run companies at a financial loss until they achieve proof of concept and critical mass.
The report warns the meat industry’s reputation has been tarnished by industrial-scale animal finishing on feedlots, which has created a sense of shame among some meat eaters.
“It is a wake-up call to ensure we understand what is important to premium customers, that we protect our natural food production systems and products and do more to ensure that our consumers recognise that NZ’s red meat farmers are in the natural foods business.”
The report identifies seven forces supporting the expansion of alternative protein.
They are the Government’s environmental management, population growth and health, the medical community highlighting the health risks of eating too much meat, athletes and mainstream influencers talking about the benefits of plant protein diets, wealthy investors with experience in creating consumer brands bankrolling alternative protein manufacturers, millennials’ eating habits reshaping the food industry with their social values, holistic wellness goals and prioritising experience over product, and the market responding to consumer demands for new products that meet evolving needs and desires.
A significant group of consumers are intrigued by alternative proteins, viewing them as good for the planet and a complete new food group.
The report said the plant protein story is simple and easily understood, underpinned by the perception plants are healthier because of the positive messaging around vegetables and better for the environment.
Despite some concern about their ultra-processed nature they are viewed as clean meat.
Cellular meat is more problematic for consumers compared to genetic modification.
But others find alternative protein lacks the indulgence and experience associated with red meat, which prevents them from switching.
A lack of floor space is limiting the product’s expansion with US grocery stores allocating alternative protein 10-20% of the space set aside for conventional protein but its space allocation was growing four to 10 times faster than for traditional protein. However. the space devoted to premium animal protein is also growing.
The report speculated four things could happen to NZ red meat. It could be pushed aside, become a speciality product, become a reluctant choice or an everyday choice.
A scenario touching all four possibilities could result but it believes red meat will become a niche product creating opportunities for grass-fed, naturally raised beef.
Of more relevance is how NZ responds to the challenge and that requires united decision-making and planning by all involved.
There is some good news.
The world’s population is expected to hit 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050 with much of that growth in India, China and sub Saharan Africa where people want to eat more protein and red meat while chilled beef exports to the Middle East, Egypt and China are growing to feed an expanding affluent class.
It also noted the expansion of vegetarians and vegans has slowed in some developing countries.
A United Kingdom-based survey found US consumers are more inclined to eat meat grown in a laboratory than those from the UK.
The Surveygoo and Ingredient Communications survey of 1000 consumers shows those from the US (40%) were more enthusiastic to try the lab-grown product than those from the UK (18%).
It also found 60% of vegans are willing to try it.
