But any extension depends on May getting backing for her withdrawal agreement negotiated with the EU last year and twice since rejected by British MPs.
Without support from MPs for the deal – which includes a 21-month transition period for the United Kingdom and the EU to negotiate future trading terms – the UK could be out of the EU by noon on Saturday NZ time.
A vote in the House of Commons is expected on Tuesday but even that is uncertain after the Speaker of the House John Bercow last week blocked May from bringing the deal back to MPs for a third vote without substantial changes.
Beef + Lamb’s policy and advocacy general manager Dave Harrison had been confident the UK would leave with a transition period in place during which it would continue to trade with the EU on current terms but now he’s not so sure.
“It is in no-one’s interests and would be hugely damaging but there is a risk that they will sleepwalk into it because of a lack of a willingness to compromise.”
The Government’s agricultural trade envoy Mike Petersen was still confident last week May will get the backing she needs given the potential for economic mayhem should the UK leave without a deal.
However, if she fails and the UK leaves without a deal there will be fallout for exporters here.
“There is real risk for the sheep meat market if the UK can’t export to the EU and they have 75,000 tonnes of sheep meat accumulate in the UK market that would normally go to Europe then that is problematic.”
Meat industry Brexit representative in London Jeff Grant said assurances from British border officials they are Brexit-ready make him more confident NZ exporters will not face significant delays at ports during the crucial delivery period for the Easter chilled market.
Furthermore, that meat enters through ports such as Southampton, which receive just 3% of cargoes from the EU and are unlikely to experience the same bottlenecks as the port closest to the continent at Dover, which gets 10,000 trucks a day from the EU and faces being overwhelmed by new documentation and border checks.
“That is less of a concern now but still a risk. The problem with these things is that nobody knows until they are fully tested.”
A no-deal Brexit on March 29 also means carving up of quotas for agricultural imports into the EU from countries outside the EU will take effect immediately.
Dairy Companies Association chairman Malcolm Bailey said the UK recently published tariff rates to apply for its share of those quotas.
Not only do NZ exporters face having their quota to the UK cut back, the latest proposals show tariffs on some products such as cheese will increase.
However, the €1188 a tonne tariff on skim milk powder will be eliminated.
While scrapping the tariff is positive, exporters will keep the champagne on ice, Bailey said.
Because the UK labelled the tariffs as temporary exporters risk ramping up supply only to have the rug pulled on them at some future date.
