The US ran short of beef for hamburger patties when its own meat plants were forced to cut back or suspend operations because of the covid-19 pandemic.
AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad has drawn attention to recent high tonnages of NZ beef shipped to the US and the opposite effect on the figures for China.
In June and July, NZ beef shipments to the US were up 80% and 90%, respectively, in the same months in 2019.
China’s imports of NZ beef were down 40% in both months.
Croad said 95CL imported beef prices in the US market during May and early June of US$2.55-$2.65/pound (NZ$8.50-$8.85/kg) prompted a lot of forward selling at that good level by NZ exporters.
“Now the shipping figures have revealed the surge in sales to the US, at the expense of China,” she said.
The US took nearly 22,000 tonnes of NZ beef in June compared with 12,000t in June 2019, while in July the numbers were 18,400t versus 9,600t last year.
By contrast, China received 14,800t in June compared with 25,800t in June 2019 and 13,000t in July, versus 21,400t last year.
“When the US prices were high, Chinese importers didn’t compete and it remains to be seen if that market demand comes back to its previous level, Croad said.
“Are they going to sit on their hands and wait until prices drift downwards again?
“The US import prices have dropped recently but they are still relatively strong.
“The current level for 95CL is around US$2.40/pound with pressure mounting for this price to ease further.
“We haven’t seen any evidence of renewed demand in the States and there is a seasonal drop-off as their summer ends.”
On the supply side, Croad pointed out the short closure of the giant JBS Dinmore plant near Brisbane because of low beef cattle numbers.
The largest beef processing facility in Australia, capable of killing 3400 a day, would shut for at least a fortnight from August 24 because it cannot attract viable tallies because of the drought-impacted livestock supply.
“That should be watched to see if an export beef shortage develops and demand rises for NZ supplies,” she said.
Season-to-date to the end of July, which is 10 months, NZ beef exports totalled 443,591t, up 7352t in the same period in 2019.
The lamb total of 277,832t is down slightly but that is balanced by a similar sized rise in mutton exports.
