Two key deadlines are looming for agreement to be met so the UK can exit as planned at 11am on March 29, 2019, followed by a two-year transition, NZ red meat sector London representative Jeff Grant, who is monitoring the Brexit negotiations, said.
That is looking increasingly uncertain, which Grant fears could mean disruption to our 228,000 tonne EU sheep meat quota.
It has been proposed NZ’s quota be evenly split between the UK and EU, preventing exporters from easily shifting product to the most valuable and receptive markets.
“While it doesn’t sound like a big issue it is very significant for NZ,” he said.
“As a small country we have stuck to the rules of the World Trade Organisation and we do have an agreement to send product to the 28 countries in the European Union in any volume up to our quota limit.”
The EU and UK, which sought to change the rules, have sent the quota issue to the WTO for a ruling.
Each year UK farmers export 65,000 tonnes of sheep meat to Europe, which has crossed seamlessly into Europe, but should customs borders and tariffs be imposed that meat might stay in the UK, disrupting the market.
Given the possibility of that greater market pressure and obstacles for UK lamb exports to Europe, British farm leaders are supportive of NZ retaining flexible management of its quota.
Europe takes most of the UK’s exports and the UK Food and Beverage Association has warned establishing customs border processing and inspection, trucks will be backed up from Dover to London within 12 hours.
Similarly, controls will have to be erected on each of the 275 roads that cross the Ireland-Northern Ireland border, affecting the 70,000 people who cross it daily.
For the exit to be orderly, or what has been termed soft, a timeline has to be met to ensure the UK has the correct legislation and systems in place.
Failure to meet the key dates will result in a hard landing or worse, a no deal, creating uncertainty about what will happen.
The first key date is October 18 when EU ministers hold a European summit at which it is intended to confirm agreed exit terms.
A fall-back summit has been planned for December 13 if the two sides still want to try to reach agreement.
Also, in December the UK government needs to vote on the withdrawal treaty and pass an implementation bill in time for the exit date.
But Grant said the ruling Conservative government is split over Brexit details so there is no guarantee it has the numbers to pass the legislation.
Given the scale and volume of Brexit issues facing political leaders it has been difficult getting access to political leaders though Ministry for Primary Industries and Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade officials have worked well pressing NZ’s case.
“I do feel it is like a game snakes and ladders. You roll a dice and try to find the right person,” he said.
UK farmers accept Brexit will result in changes to the $8 billion Common Agriculture Policy (CAP) and have been keen to learn about NZ’s experience from the 1980s.
The UK government has said there will not be any change until 2022 but then all bets are off.
It has also said it intends to use public funds for public good, a statement Grant said is open to interpretation.
A Health and Harmony document produced in February by the Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs said CAP dictated how the UK farmed and grew food but it has meant a deterioration to the environment and held back productivity.
Grant said farmers are resigned to changes meaning a greater focus on the environment and countryside access.
“I get the impression that this time things will change.”
