They said no one knows how deep the hole is or how long it will take the economy to recover.
The important point is that the economy will recover.
The response by NZ’s policy makers has been timely and appropriately aggressive, they said.
The labour and housing markets and economic fallout more generally will be limited greatly by the decisive actions seen to date.
“We’re confident they will work to support the economy as we endure the lockdown and then stimulate the economy as we emerge.
“It gives us the best chance of emerging from this crisis in reasonable shape compared to some.”
How the rest of the world fares still matters a great deal for New Zealand given the trade-dependent economy.
Providing the Chinese economy manages to recover from its winter flu, prospects for NZ food exporters might not be as bad as they could be given the pending global downturn.
“Our terms of trade should hold up reasonably well but we acknowledge the downside risks around this view.”
NZ has more fiscal and monetary ammunition than most. And policymakers have already shown boldly that they are not afraid to use it.
Forecasting is tough at the best of times but borderline impossible now, they said.
The relevance of forecasts is also reduced because some firms are simply trying to stay afloat rather than doing any sort of planning for the future.
Businesses on the front line of this shock will have the clearest sense of the impacts and are therefore are best placed to figure out the way forward and essential industries operating during the lockdown will learn a lot about new work techniques.
Others have time to plan.
There is plenty of help from the Government and banks, they said.
