The recommendation for a reduction range of 22% to 35% was made last November by the Climate Change Chief Executives Board, a cross-agency committee of public sector chief executives.
The National Party’s climate change spokesman Todd Muller says Shaw ignored their advice, that of the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment Simon Upton and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).
Instead, the Government opted for a 10% reduction in gross emissions by 2030 and a 24% to 47% reduction by 2050 with no chance for farmers to offset their emissions with tree planting, an option available to carbon dioxide emitters.
Muller also agrees with the board’s alternative recommendation of letting the Independent Climate Change Commission set methane targets.
“I have supported James Shaw establishing independent advisory groups on climate change but this effort becomes pointless if he only listens to advice that suits a political purpose,” Muller said.
“National has disagreed with the Government’s proposed agricultural methane target in the Climate Change Bill and suggested that this matter be put to the new Climate Change Commission the minister is establishing.”
The board also includes some economic analysis on the cost of greenhouse gas emissions, based on a 25% reduction in methane and net zero emissions of other gases by 2050.
It assesses an annual cost of $2500 for an average dairy farm up to 2025 and that a million hectares of sheep and beef land will be converted to forestry by 2050.
Other assessments estimate forestry expansion could be double that but the board notes sheep and beef are significant industries in Manawatu-Wanganui, Otago and Canterbury, which will be hit hard by emission reduction policies.
The board says its recommended methane reduction range reflected Upton’s advice and the IPCC.
Upton said a 22% cut below 2016 levels is needed to prevent more warming from methane but with the proviso the rest of the world also takes action.
The 35% goal is the mid-point in the range set out by the IPCC.
“The target for biogenic methane should be to stabilise these emissions within the range 22% to 35% below 2016 levels by 2050,” the board says.
It suggested a process be established to reach agreement in a timely, credible and enduring way.
That includes getting the Climate Change Commission to set an appropriate target.
