The panel has published its latest report on global warming that pulls no punches on the immediacy of the problem and the wide-ranging steps required now to deal with holding temperature increases to 1.5C by 2050.
The report calls for slicing a massive 45% from 2010 emission levels in only 12 years to hold the temperature rise.
It calls for rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes to all aspects of society to keep warming under 1.5C.
But it also calls for a reduction in short term gases including methane.
That is something with a pointed impact on NZ’s livestock-based economy because farming generates almost half the country’s greenhouse gas emissions as methane and nitrous oxide.
Given the lack of technology to cut emissions, the issue promises significant economic challenges to the sector in that short time.
The panel’s experts are calling for methane emissions to be sliced by 35% by 2050 compared to 2010 levels to help limit warming to 1.5C, along with reductions in nitrous oxide.
But present best practice in NZ can deliver reductions of only about 6%.
Lead author and Canterbury University political scientist Bronwyn Hayward said report authors are keenly aware of the impact having to reduce agricultural emissions will have on rural communities.
“This is the first IPCC report that has tried to put the impacts into a social context and to try and look at sustainable options for communities.
“We usually talk about sustainability as something affecting other countries but this is very much something that will affect us deeply.”
A reduction of 35% in methane when there is no new technology at hand can be achieved only by lower stocking rates, at a level significantly affecting farm incomes.
“Chapter five of the report has a lot of work on asking how you help sectors make a just and fair shift on climate resilience.
“As a society we have had a history of asking rural NZ to step up on productivity and output.
“Now, we need to make some major structural changes.
“Those people farming who have made major life investments will need our support.”
Hayward said the plight of rural communities under such reduction pressures is not dissimilar to that of people living in coastal areas now facing the threat of seawater inundation.
“You cannot just leave these communities to sort it out on their own. That is a big message in this report.”
The report notes about 17% of the world’s greenhouse gas emissions are from livestock, with two-thirds of that from dairy and beef methane emissions.
It acknowledges a reduction could occur with lower global appetite for dairy and beef.
However, it also concedes there is little evidence of any effective policies to achieve large-scale shifts in global dietary choices and, if anything, prevailing trends are for an increasing rather than decreasing demand for livestock products.
Lincoln University’s agricultural economic associate Professor Anita Wreford is contributing to an IPCC report out next year on land use and climate change.
She agrees there is a sense in farming communities that after years of striving to increase productivity farmers have now become the villains and face dealing with impacts of climate change on their own.
“If you had something like ETS running to generate funds you could put it towards transition funding to different land uses, supporting the individuals and the communities having to deal with it.”
But tree planting will get NZ only so far.
However, shifts in land use might not necessarily be negative with new crop options and markets presenting themselves.
“It could also provide an opportunity for more regional employment, perhaps decentralising to regional areas away from urban centres. It can depend on how you look at it.”
The report acknowledges farm operations that incorporate more mixed crop/livestock combinations can deliver improved productivity and sustainable outcomes, even reducing deforestation by 76 million hectares globally if applied at scale.
However, it also requires greater management skills and capital demands.
Hayward said the country faces a moral hazard by opting for the ETS as the almost sole approach to deal with emissions.
“It is only one approach and the IPCC report sets out multiple things communities need at a social and economic level.”
Given there is a suite of gases emitted, including carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane, Wreford said NZ can chose how much of a reduction it wants from each from each sector and adjust accordingly.
“Just because the IPCC has called for a 35% reduction globally in methane does not mean that’s where we have to go. We could choose a lower figure and increase the gas reduction sought from another sector, such as transport.”
Wreford said there is relatively little research on transitioning rural communities but breaking down traditional silos between sector groups would be a good start to finding wider solutions.
“I do feel cautiously hopeful, more than I did a couple of years ago.
“We do know that if we don’t do anything the impacts will be significant for NZ agriculture long term – some of the impacts we might bear in transformation will be less than that.”
Armageddon – it’s no exaggeration
The language used in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report on global warming is strident and urgent, a tone that is significant given it is a heavily vetted, cross-checked and referenced document agreed on by all participating governments.
The report calls for rapid, far-reaching and unprecedented changes to limit warming to 1.5C by 2050.
The report, with 91 authors from 40 countries and 6000 scientific references, is regarded as uncompromising in its foundations as it is in its language.
It highlights a number of climate change impacts that could be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5C compared to 2C or more.
They include the likelihood holding it to 1.5C will result in 70-75% of the world’s coral disappearing as opposed to 99% with a 2C rise.
The likelihood of an Arctic Ocean free of sea ice in summer would be once a century compared with at least once a decade.
Global sea level rise would be 10cm lower with warming of 1.5C compared with 2C.
The NZ Insurance Council estimates the cost of a 0.5m sea level rise at $3 billion and a 1.5m rise at $20b.
Global net human-caused emissions of carbon dioxide need to fall by about 45% from 2010 levels by 2030, reaching net zero around 2050 to hold the 1.5C increase.
Professor Anita Wreford of Lincoln University said given the report’s scientific foundations and the level of vetting required it is sure to be well founded and not an exaggeration of what is unfolding.
“But the good news is that we are not too late. We still have time but it is running out.”
Climate Change Minister James Shaw said the good news about is the report broadly in line with the Government’s direction on climate change and highly relevant to the work being done now on the Zero Climate Bill.
“It says the goal is challenging but achievable but it also says that the pace of transition to low-emissions needs to step-up and be far-reaching,” he said.
