Saturday, April 27, 2024

WMP futures buyers cautious

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Butter futures on the NZX Dairy Derivatives market jumped up in price last week, for all contract periods. The December 2015 contract was trading at US$2900/t at close of business on Friday, with all other contracts being US$3000/t or higher. Buyers of whole milk powder (WMP) futures remain cautious. The December 2015 contract had risen to US$2330/t earlier in the week, but by Friday was back at the same position it closed the prior week at US$2250/t. All WMP contract periods have increased in price, though the increases are small. 
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Both skim milk powder (SMP) futures and anhydrous milkfat (AMF) futures have seen little change in price over the past week.

The outlook in the futures market remains fairly flat, though all prices have improved.

Volumes traded also saw little change last week, with the exception being butter futures. 300t of butter was traded last week, after nothing being trading since early October. WMP futures saw 525t less traded than the week before, and SMP 30t less. AMF saw an increase of 60t.

Market activity was low last week, though it picked up a bit on Friday. Friday saw 560t traded at US$1.36m over 15 trades.

Changes in open interest positions were similar to the other changes we saw last week. Butter futures almost doubled in the number of open interest positions, closing the week at 610 open positions (+96.7%). AMF saw an increase of 70 open positions (+11.16%), while milk powder saw smaller increases, with open positions for SMP up +0.36% and for WMP up +3.30%. 

The volume traded through November saw an increase from November 2014, with a total of 19520t traded (+55%). However, this was down from volumes traded in October (-17%). Most of the decline between October and November was in WMP futures (-2831t), with a smaller decline in SMP futures (-433t). AMF and butter futures both saw increases from what was traded in October, trading 300t each – an increase of 190t for AMF and 175t for butter.

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