Cow numbers have been decreasing in the EU, until last year. In 2004, the EU27 total was more than 25 million head. In 2012, the provisional EU28 total is estimated to be 23.2 million head. This FAS report estimates cow numbers to have expanded by just over 300,000 head in 2013 as farmers respond to favourable margins and in anticipation of the expiration of milk quotas in April 2015. The forecast for 2014 is for more of the same. The quota expiration date draws near, and mild weather conditions along with high farmgate milk prices and improved availability of feed will encourage higher milk production– which is driven in part by the number of cows.
EU milk production is typically funneled into the production of the following commodities in descending order by volume: cheese, butter, skim milk powder (SMP) and whole milk powder (WMP).
Cheese production is expected to grow in 2014 on the back of favourable world prices and greater availability of raw milk. The single largest destination of EU28 cheese exports is Russia, who have imported approximately a quarter of total EU28 cheese exports for the last three years. However, the long-term viability of that market is in doubt with Russia implementing import bans on some countries or processing plants within the EU28. For example, half of the Dutch cheese supply to Russia was banned at the start of this year. However this ban has since been lifted. So far, Russia's bans have not deterred overall cheese exports from the EU28, which are tracking at similar levels for the first quarter of 2014 compared to 2013.
Butter production is expected to grow due to low stocks and strong demand both domestically and internationally. However this growth will be limited by competition for increased raw milk supplies from cheese and WMP. The Private Storage Aid (PSA) butter program, which functions to control supply in order to keep price within a desired range, now requires a decision to start by the European Commission where previously the program activated automatically at set times during the year.
Production of milk powders is also expected to grow on the back of new drying capacity, increased raw milk supply and stronger demand.
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