This is a 2.9% increase from the 206.1 billion pounds forecast for this year (2014) which in turn is a 2.4% increase on 2013. The increase in 2015 is driven by lower feed costs and strong milk prices, which are expected to support both herd expansion and gains in milk per cow.
The all-milk price in 2014 is forecast to be in the range of US$22.70 to $23/cwt. By 2015 milk prices are expected to average between US$19.70 to $20.70/cwt. Although the 2015 price is expected to be well below the 2014 price, it is still a very strong milk price when considered historically. In 2013 the all milk price averaged US$20.05/cwt and in 2012 the milk price average was US$18.52/cwt.
Source: WASDE
Prices of butter and dry whey have been revised upward for 2014. 2014 prices of all dairy commodities are forecast above 2013 prices but by 2015 prices are expected to be lower.
US exports of fat based products are forecast lower on increased competition from traditional exporters, primarily in butterfat markets, but are still expected to be 7.3% higher in 2014 than in 2013.
Continued strength in nonfat dry milk (NDM) markets is expected to limit declines in skim-solids exports. Skim-solids exports in 2014 are expected to be in the vicinity of 38.7 billion pounds, an increase of 0.3% over 2013. However by 2015 export volumes are expected to fall back again to 2013 levels, wiping out any gains made this year.
Fat-basis import forecasts are expected to be about the same as 2014 but skim-solids imports will be lower.
