On face value, January data is just 0.3% back on a year ago bringing the total season-to-date milk production to 2.2% behind the same period a year earlier. Season-to-December milk production was down 2.6%.
Weather conditions last summer limited pasture growth, which impacted January 2015 production. Milk production was down on the year before by 1.3%. Compared to January 2014 levels, the January 2016 milk production is 1.5% behind.
AgriHQ dairy analyst Susan Kilsby commented “it is not surprising to see milk production this January being virtually on par with last season. Last January was extremely dry across the main milk producing regions whereas this year most areas received reasonable levels of rain”.
There is still four months of the season left to publish, and this time last year those four months equated to 30% of year’s total production. Timely rain in February may be enough to carry production through at optimal levels.
Last year February milk production was 4.92% behind a year earlier. “February data should reveal growth in output compared with last season. While it is drier than desired in some dairying regions conditions are generally much better than last season. There is also an extra day this February, due to leap year, which will bolster output.”
Fonterra, which collected about 86% of national milk supply last season, was 2% behind last year for January milk intake. This indicates Fonterra’s market share is now nearer 84% of the total milk collected in NZ, explains Kilsby. Most of Fonterra’s milk is collected in the North Island. Its North Island intakes were back 6% on last year during January while South Island milk collection were 4% above last season.
