The report forecasts a drop in milk output in NZ in the 2015 calendar year but indicates that the volume of dairy products exported will rise. The report states the reasons for the decline in milk production as:
- Milk intakes in the January to June 2015 period are expected to be 2.25% down on the same period in 2014 due to generally dry conditions which effected much of NZ from January through March, and the early sale of cull cows.
- The number of cows to be milked during the August to December period is expected to be down by 50,000 head from the 2014 spring.
- Milk yields per cow during the 2015 spring are forecast to be be less than 2014 because the favourable spring weather conditions experienced in recent years are unlikely to occur, and farmers will be unwilling to spend money on extra supplements in the low milk price environment.
However the report does indicate that declines in milk output during the spring will be partially mitigated by improved management practices.
"It should be noted that a better level of management on farm during the spring, which has recently become the norm, and continual genetic improvement to the national herd for protein and fat yields has enhanced productivity which will tend to counter to a degree the negative elements outlined above" reports the USDA.
Production of dairy commodities in 2015 is forecast to be lower than 2014 due to the forecast reduction in milk supply. Whole milk powder production is expected to fall 2.5% while skim milk powder production is forecast to fall 5%. Production of fat based products, ie butter and anhydrous milkfat, is forecast to be stable at 2014 levels. Cheese production is forecast to fall 2.5%.
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