Saturday, April 27, 2024

GDT prices fall 7.3% – Event 125, October 1

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Prices at the October 1 GlobalDairyTrade auction fell by 7.3% as all commodities declined in price. The average winning price reached US$2,599/t this auction, down from US$2,795/t. 
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Source: GDT

A total of 55,057 tonnes was sold, up from 50,801 tonnes in the previous auction but down 57,010 tonnes from two auctions ago. 

We have just launched two data tools which aim to help users gain a deeper understanding of the NZ dairy industry. The first is our Milk Production Predictor, which is aimed at global dairy market participants for whom a better understanding of future levels of New Zealand milk production is vital. The tool predicts NZ milk production over the next 3 months by utilising advanced modelling and input from the NZX Agri data team. 

The second is our Farmgate Milk Price CalculatorThere are two tools: The Snapshot Calculator developed by NZX and Massey University; and the Season Calculator developed by NZX by building on the work in the Snapshot Calculator. The tools were built to help users better understand the relationship between the farmgate milk price and dairy commodity prices at GlobalDairyTrade auctions building confidence over time for farmers to hedge their milk price on the NZX Dairy Futures market. 

WMP prices declined across contract periods 2-6, with the largest decline coming from Contract 3 (-10.7%), which is for shipment in January 2015. Fonterra's WMP regular Contract 2 sold at US$2,385/t which was below market expectations on the NZX Dairy Futures market. Prices there last settled at US$2,890/t for the October contract. 

SMP prices did not fall as sharply as WMP, averaging a 2.7% decline. The farthest contract, Contract 6 for shipment in April 2015 fell the most (-5.8%). But much of the decline will have come from Contracts 2-4 which is where the majority of volume is offered. Fonterra's SMP medium heat Contract 2 sold at US$2,510/t. Equivalent product from Euroserum and Arla largely traded about US$100/t lower with the exception of UK-sourced product from Arla. Amul's product continues trading high above other sellers, at a premium of more than US$1,200/t over Fonterra.

Anhydrous milkfat (AMF) prices declined 5% to average US$3,117/t. Contract 2 prices declined the most, by 8.3%. Fonterra's AMF regular 210kg drum Contract 2 traded at US$2,920/t.

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