Source: Greenmark Dairy
EU market very quiet
Against the background of buyers remaining absent from the market place and ongoing uncertainty regarding milk output in the EU, the market lacks any clear, or even vague indicators about a change of tide and in response to that remains very, very quiet…… Looking at the world trade it is obvious that China and Russia are sorely missed. Across the board for nearly every other destination we see fairly substantial increases in their imports but alas, not enough to compensate Russia’s and China’s decreases in imports.
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In general it can be said the market remains lackluster and most prices are below this week’s quotations. Especially SMP suffers with prices about 3 to 5% below the EU quotations for this week. WMP continues to slide down but remains overpriced compared to SMP/Butter but that may be a function of lower production. WMP is considerably more expensive than its components which would work out at a theoretical price today of €2,265/t. The market is very uninspiring with prices trading lower. SMP for feed faced a technical correction and is not traded at €1750/t, just €50 below SMP food grade.
GlobalDairyTrade
Today’s GDT showed a modest loss compared to the previous two events – this is spite of Australian analysts predicting the GDT average price to possibly sink to levels of $1500/t in the next months. However modest we may call the result in comparison, -3.6% is still significant especially when we take a closer look.
AMF : The average price gained 2.6%, which is composed of increases between 1.2 – 2.9% across all contracts.
Cheddar : The average price gained 2.7% which is composed of a loss of 1.5% in contract 2 and a gain of 7.2% in contract 3.
WMP : The average price lost 4.3% which is composed of losses across the contracts between -3% and -6%. The smallest losses were made on contract 2 and 6 – both below the average loss – implying their volume was heavier than on the other 3 contracts.
SMP : The average price lost 7.8% which is composed of > 10% losses in the first 3 contracts and gains of > 5% in the last two contracts. Implying contracts 5 & 6 were heavier on volume than the first three contracts.
The outcome of the latest GDT is more or less in line with market perceptions prior to the event and if anything, shows greater weakness on the nearby contracts than on the deferred ones.
