Thursday's situation

1 Thursday 2102

22nd February 2018

The secondary low from ex-cyclone Gita will today cross the North Island with the chance of isolated thunder and localised very heavy downpours. Generally speaking today sees a change across NZ as high pressure builds from the west. Expect the heat and humidity to drop back further in the north.












Outlook – next 14 Days:14 Day Outlook Portrait w white bg 2102

The remnants of Gita will clear by the end of Thursday and as we go through Friday, Saturday and Sunday high pressure will be pushing across the nation, especially northern New Zealand.

However, a cyclone that was named Kelvin has fallen apart over eastern and central Australia and will drop over the Southern Ocean this weekend, helping to fuel a low across the South Island by the start of next week - expect very heavy rain on the West Coast then it moves over the North Island, most likely in a weaker state. After this another high rolls in and this one looks, at this early stage anyway, to be a decent nationwide anticyclone lasting a few to several days.





Soil Moisture and Pasture Growth IndexSoil Moisture NIWA 2102

A sunnier, drier phase after Gita thanks to high pressure could see pasture growth spiking in many areas, although cooler weather may limit growth for some southern areas at first.

North Island drought areas have had some rain, which will finally encourage some better growth. Warmer weather is coming though and the next two weeks do see a mixture of high pressure systems bringing sunshine and isolated wet weather. Areas that have been saturated - like northern NZ - have a drier trend returning.

map anomalies 2102

Precipitation outlook

Tuesday 20, February 2018 to Wednesday 28, February 2018

Percipitation mm 2102

Precipitation (% of normal) during the first period: 

Tuesday 20, February 2018 to Wednesday 28, February 2018

Percipitation 2102

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Weather Trends


Heavy downpours today in the south and southwest corner of the NI otherwise conditions drying out as we head into the weekend and for the weekend. Heavy rain moves up the West Coast on Monday, NI on Tuesday, then becoming dry.



A SW flow spreads across most of NZ today/tonight, then high pressure builds calming winds down. By Sunday/the start of next week strong westerlies are likely over the SI and lower NI. Calmer mid to late next week.


A fairly cold start (considering it's summer!) in the South Island today with a refreshing change sweeping away the mugginess in the north. Hot in the east of the North Island, especially Sunday as westerlies kick in. Average temps next week.


The remnants of Australia's Cyclone Kelvin will merge with a Southern Ocean low and this will feed a very active heavy rain band up the West Coast Sunday night, Monday and then some parts of the NI by Tuesday.