Weather

Summer outlook

The summer pattern is already underway and here's WeatherWatch.co.nz climate forecasting using IBM's super computer. The forecast suggests much of the North Island leans both drier than normal and warmer than normal, with the exception of Taranaki and the southern tip around Wellington and Wairarapa which may be more average with rainfall and less extreme heat days. The South Island leans average to wetter than average while the West Coast and Southland lean both wetter and cooler overall. 

 

 

Pasture

These forecasts are the general Summer outlook. Some random weather to look for would be afternoon downpours and thunderstorms that can bubble up and bring rain relief to dry inland areas - also, Tasman and sub-tropical lows which can dwarf NZ and bring sudden rain relief. There may also be some hot and dry weather events that escape from Australia and bring better weather to the South Island at times. 



Rainfall Summer months (Dec, Jan, Feb)

 unnamed

  

rainfall SI

 

 

Temperature trends Summer months (Dec, Jan, Feb)

 temp trends NI

 SI temp trend

 

 

Weather Trends

RAIN

Wetter than average: West Coast and Southland and possibly Otago and Canterbury. Average: Taranaki, southern Wairarapa and perhaps Wellington.  Most other places lean drier than average but remember the Wild Card Effect (random isolated but heavy/soaking summer downpours).

WIND

Looks like the North Island may have more W to NW airflows while the South Island may be leaning more W to SW.

TEMPS

The North Island is leaning warmer than average with northern and eastern regions the hottest (inland too). However the further west you go the cooler or more average it is.
In the South Island cooler than average for the West Coast and Southland.

HIGHLIGHTS

Canterbury rainfall is a little trickier to lock in. There may be some areas that have average to above average rainfall - but the shape of the South Island ranges and mountains mean some pockets may become dry.