Wednesday's situation 

1 Wednesdayaa18th February 2019


High pressure slowly starts to slip off NZ today to the east which allows a more humid sub-tropical nor'east flow for the North Island and a northerly quarter flow for the South Island. Some rain or showers on the West Coast, a few isolated showers in northern NZ, otherwise dry & warm.


14-day outlook 14 Day Outlook Portrait w white bg

Rain is on the way for NZ but there is so much uncertainty still due to Cyclone Oma we cannot yet lock in who might get a drenching, who might get drizzle and who may stay dry. There are FOUR moving parts to the next several days: 1) A large controlling high over Tasmania this weekend. 2) Cyclone Oma (or the remnants). 3) A new low forming in the NZ area on Sunday/Monday. 4) A cold southerly moving in this weekend, enhanced by the Tasmania high and the new NZ low forming. So rain is forecast, but it's hard to lock in where. Both islands have a shot of soaking rains though. One week from now high pressure returns with warm & dry weather.

 Soil Moisture NIWA

Soil Moisture projects pasture growth will continue to drop or stall completely in some areas as the big dry continues - but we do have some chances of soaking rains should Cyclone Oma influence our weather enough. This week sees more dominant high pressure which will keep most places dry (and hot inland) which will only slow pasture growth further. But, late week and this weekend there is a chance for soaking rains - but it is not yet locked in due to Oma's uncertainty.

Precipitation outlook

Monday 17th, February 2019 - Tuesday 26th, February 2019   

Percipitation mm

Precipitation (% of normal) during the first period: 

Monday 17th, February 2019 - Tuesday 26th, February 2019      




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Weather Trends


Drier than normal for most this week with the exception of the West Coast. If Oma doesn't bring rain then most North Island areas will be drier than average, if Oma hits then wetter than normal. Aiming to lock in by Wednesday.


Not a lot of wind this week but a northerly quarter flow will develop this week giving way to a colder southerly on Friday and the weekend. Winds over the weekend are not yet locked in due to uncertainty around Cyclone Oma.


Some heat this week with highs in the low 30s in some inland and eastern areas. But be prepared for a cold change arriving on Friday and the weekend. Some places have highs only in the low teens this weekend.


This week is drier than average in most regions, except the West Coast. The big wild card, however, is Cyclone Oma which may bring big rain to NZ -- or, it may stop shy of NZ leaving us dry. One to closely watch.