Friday, April 26, 2024

Will dairy farm sales bounce back?

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Sales outcomes of dairy farm marketing programmes will show the level of resilience following a 20% or so decline in prices over the last year, Real Estate Institute rural spokesman Brian Peacocke says.
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There have been sales at early-season November auctions with several more scheduled through early December. Going into late November indications were it was still a buyer’s market but very good locations were achieving good sales, he said.

At other levels a lot of work is going on to bridge the gap between vendor expectations and what buyers are prepared to pay. 

Sheep and beef farm activity remains strong around the country.

In his report for the three months to the end of October Peacocke said dairy farm sales activity was nearly non-existent but in October many farms of most types came onto the market throughout the country.

“That poses the question as to the likely uptake, where, in many regions, purchasers have unprecedented section opportunities,” he said.

Vendors’ expectations will be a key factor.

Across all farm types, median and overall index prices were higher at the end of the October three-month period than a year earlier with finishing farms, in particular, well sought-after in most districts and significantly higher in  price but dairy farm prices were well down.

Dairy farm prices are measured in two ways, median prices and the REINZ Dairy Farm Price Index. The median price for the October three-month period was $28,555/ha compared to $30,876/ha for the equivalent September period and $40,012 for October last year. That is a 28.6% year-on-year fall.

The index is considered a more accurate gauge because it adjusts for differences in farm size and location. It fell 6.2% from September to October and by 16.6% year-on-year.

Peacocke said there appears to be good demand across the country but short supply of good dairy farms and the second-tier market is very slow. 

In Waikato, after very light recent activity, a large selection of dairy farms is available but buyer interest at open days has been extremely variable. 

Taranaki is quiet and there are reports of vendors holding firm and not being prepared to accept lower offers.

Reports from Bay of Plenty indicate hard work in the diary sector and general dissatisfaction over issues such as environment, labour, Fonterra and the Coalition Government.

In the South Island Canterbury activity is quiet but there are signs of a pick-up in interest and a supply of farms. 

Supply of capital is restricting the dairy market in Otago with Overseas Investment Office rules a barrier as is also the case in Southland for larger properties, causing some frustrations.

Over all farms, the median price for the October three-month period was $27,121/ha, up from $24,982 in October last year, an 8.6% lift, and the market was also up 6.8% on the latest September period.

The REINZ All Farm Price Index fell 5.8% from September to October but rose 9.1% year-on-year.

Finishing farms had a median price of $32,969/ha for the October period, up slightly from $32,412 in September and from $29,057 in October last year. The year-on-year gain was 13.5%.

The median price for grazing farms for October was $11,335/ha, down from $11,936 in September and $11,822 in October last year for a 4.1% year-on-year fall.

Horticulture farm sales figures can be influenced by one-off sales and the median price of $198,768/ha, while higher than for September, was 43% down on the October 2017 figure of $350,833.

Peacocke said Wellington and Southland had the biggest increases in farm transactions during the October three-month period with Waikato and Northland having the biggest falls.

For the year, there were 1475 farm sales, 10.5% down on the 2017 figure, with lower numbers across the grazing, dairy, finishing and arable sectors.

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