But it is far from certain whether this just a question of timing or the genuine possibility the predictions are exaggerated.
Speculation, based on suspicion and anecdote, appears to be an unreliable guide to what is actually happening so, while planning for an uncertain future is essential, it would pay not to ignore present realities.
Certainties for the agricultural sector include sheep meat prices at around all time highs, a high milk price, a fairly mild winter following good growth earlier in the year, continuing demand from trading partners, no new tariffs imposed on NZ agricultural products, a bullish, if potentially volatile, global economy, a stable domestic economy and an exchange rate that has stabilised at up to 10% off its 2017 peak.
All these factors suggest the world isn’t about to end any time soon.
In contrast, there are several uncertainties that have a tendency to instill fear of the unknown but, inevitably, the reality is either more gradual or less disastrous than our imagination suggests.
The slowing of China’s economy must have some impact on demand for our exports but there is no indication it will be extreme.
The rise of alternative proteins and cell-based meat is clearly a future threat but there will be a period of adjustment, during which the agricultural sector can enhance its product quality, improve its environmental performance and sharpen its communications strategy.
Domestically, there is uncertainty about the impact of climate change and agriculture’s inclusion in the Emissions Trading Scheme while, internationally, there remains concern about the effects of climate change and what could be termed trade disagreements between the United States and China, US and its NAFTA partners though suddenly Mexico seems to be a friend, the European Union and Britain.
The US economy, boosted by tax cuts and a plentiful money supply, is buoyant, even if some of President Donald Trump’s claims about how much better people are doing under his presidency aren’t actually true.
Even the United Kingdom, which is in a state of tremendous uncertainty, having apparently made no progress in 18 months towards negotiating terms of exit from the EU, is still rocking along with the highest rate of growth in Europe.
The British must be wondering whether it will all grind to a standstill next March but in the meantime they are making hay while the sun keeps shining.
Meanwhile, NZ can do nothing to accelerate the Brexit process and its fallout, any more than it can plan for the side effects of the US trade war on China.
By lifting the game away from the commodity level, as is the objective of Taste Pure Nature and the origin meat brand, NZ’s meat industry has the chance to move beyond head-on competition with alternative protein and cell-based meat.
Equally, the success of a2 Milk, Tatua and Synlait compared with Fonterra points to the direction the dairy sector should be moving in if it wants to avoid competing directly with alternative milk products.
There will continue to be a market and a price for grinding beef and whole milk powder but the message is clear: use the notice period to move up the value chain.
NZ has chosen to address issues it can try to influence, notably in areas of trade agreements and quota rights, such as protesting against the draft EU and UK quota-splitting proposal, which is clearly a trade distortion mechanism and completely at odds with World Trade Organisation regulations. It’s hard to see how the proposal has any chance of being implemented unless there’s a resolution to the broader exit terms by the end of March.
Progress towards introducing the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans Pacific Partnership and upgrading the China free-trade agreement are equally valuable initiatives though it is of concern that Trade Minister David Parker has not yet visited China since last year’s general election.
For agricultural producers, whether meat, dairy or horticulture, one certainty is that we have reached the peak of volume production.
The combination of carbon emissions, legislation and public opinion means farmers and growers can no longer plan to increase output purely in numbers but must add value to what can be produced without unduly stressing the environment.
Farmers have been taken by surprise by the comparatively sudden growth in public antipathy towards what have been accepted as normal farming practices for decades.
Suddenly, it seems farmers have gone from being regarded as bastions of the economy to public enemy number one.
This is patently unfair but, unfortunately, it’s the product of the age of heightened environmental and social awareness in which we live.
The only option from here is to work smarter not harder and, with a bit of luck, the world won’t fall apart.
