Friday, March 29, 2024

ALTERNATIVE VIEW: Virus makes Kiwi roads safer

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Coronavirus had an immediate effect in our area – overnight, the chainsaws stopped.  Timber trucks became a rarity rather than an inevitable and with the removal of speeding, empty timber trucks and supercharged forestry workers crazy to get home the roads became a lot safer.
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There has been considerable hysteria in the media over coronavirus but at the time of writing 42,500 people have been confirmed with the disease that has killed 1000.

It is a threat we need to be aware of and it could get worse.

Having said that, my view of the virus is contrary to many.

For a start, what more is China meant to do to control it? They’ve directly isolated more than 50 million people, built hospitals virtually overnight and are doing what they can to minimise the effects of the virus.

In addition, I think our politicians and officials have acted in our best interests. I don’t know what more they can do.

That’s despite National’s Michael Woodhouse inflammatory statements to the contrary, all noise and no direction.

What I found interesting is the international share markets, so vulnerable to bad news and speculation, have hardly moved.

Locally, we have seen some tourism companies share prices take a predictable hit.

The fact is coronavirus is a zoonotic disease, spread from animals to humans.

We’ve had three cases of zoonotic diseases I’m aware of – coronavirus, Sars and Ebola.

Coronavirus has killed 1000 mainly in China, Sars killed 349 people, again mainly in China.

Ebola killed more than 11,000 people, predominantly in west Africa.

Those figures are all tragic but last year the common flu killed more than 61,000 and malaria killed more than 500,000, the vast majority being children under five. 

So, we live in an era of lethal diseases and as far as zoonotic diseases are concerned we’re inevitably going to see more not less.

The problems for New Zealand are many and varied but the main issue as I see it is to keep a clear head and I believe that is what the Government and bureaucracy are doing.

For a start, despite rumours to the contrary, we’re still shipping meat to China and a lot of it.

Manufacturing beef sales to China are down but we have a ready-made alternative market in the United States.

There have been some issues with mutton but industry sources are confident they will be resolved.

Chilled lamb is going to Britain and the European Union as it always has and will certainly continue to the end of the year.

Dairying is going well and we don’t depend on China as much as we did.

Yes, exports are not at the same volume they were at Christmas but the processors I spoke to believe they are still reasonable.

As far as full freezers and chillers are concerned, they are full for two reasons. One is the drought and the other is the increase in processing, which are obviously related.

Cattle are 80,000 ahead of last year’s kill. The lamb kill is also up.

The carcases have to be stored somewhere but as we’re still shipping it’s believed to be a temporary problem.

Many freezing works are at capacity but could process more if they had the workforce to do it.

The processors I spoke to told me the issue in China is with logistics. Some ports are backed up but there are alternatives. Their customers are working from home and demand isn’t a problem.

The base issue is the Chinese pork industry has imploded and the government won’t see its people starve so coronavirus or not people have to eat and we can supply a quality, cost-effective product.

Yes, China is by far and away our largest single market. Our prosperity has a large dependence on it.

My belief is that market is solid in the short to medium term for the reasons I’ve mentioned.

We do need to diversify and we are.

There’s been some discussion lately about India and I certainly believe it is a market of massive potential.

I’m aware Trade Minister David Parker is working on a free-trade agreement with India, which is good news. The Indian tariffs are a killer and their removal or lowering would be great for us.

So, my view of the coronavirus is simple.

It will have an effect on our economy, primarily in tourism and education.

As tourism is a discretionary activity it will always be subject to disasters, economics and pestilence. 

The response of China has been solid as has ours in NZ.

It is a tragic event but we will see more like it.

We need to continually work on diversifying our markets and we are.

Finally, we need to future-proof our economy and livelihood against future crises and I believe we have the will, the wit and the political commitment to do just that.

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