Friday, March 29, 2024

FROM THE RIDGE: Muller’s call signals a return to the 1980s

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Though all the news and happenings in the world that seemed so important before March appear to have completely disappeared, covid-19 and domestic politics have admirably filled the gap.  If they weren’t happening would our screens just be empty or full of snuffbumble, as the sports news is now?
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We watched Labour through the Sir John Key years go through a succession of leaders as they struggled to find an answer to a popular prime minister. Clark, Goff, Shearer, Cunliffe, Parker (forgot about his interim role, didn’t you?), Little and finally Ardern over nine years. Seven of them.

Mind you, even National had five leaders over the nine years from 1997 to 2006. Bolger, Shipley, English, Brash and Key.

And now four leaders over the last four years in Key, English, Bridges and Todd Muller.

If these lists of names tell you anything it’s that politics is a nasty and brutal business. Only Key and Little went on their own accords.

Unless you were committed party faithful Simon Bridges was never convincing. His speech patterns, inability to project authenticity and bringing his prosecutorial, aggressive style up against the great deflector Ardern just didn’t work.

But give him his due, he worked extremely hard and kept the blowtorch of opposition on this Government and until the pandemic response kept National’s polling figures at a good level despite the new approach to politics Ardern has brought.

I was part of a radio interview on Jamie Mackay’s The Country with Grant McCallum who Jamie fondly calls McNational at the time the Nats were choosing their leader last time.

McCallum is some sort of big wig in the party and I said though I doubted he’d take my advice, my recommendation would be they choose Crusher Collins instead of Bridges, as I expected they would. I’m no fan of Collins myself.

My theory was Crusher would have a better chance going up against a young, quickly improving and increasingly popular woman prime minister who, at the time, was pregnant. Going into the next election Collins would have been less hampered than anyone else by the prime minister walking around holding the hand of a cute toddler.

Even then I doubted Collins would win given our last single-term government was the Labour one from 1972 to 1975, which didn’t recover from Norman Kirk dying in office but did well enough to save the furniture. Then the party would choose their best bet to ensure they were just two terms in opposition not three.

However, now they have Todd Muller in place to rescue the furniture. We know a bit of him as he was agricultural spokesman for the last nine months but relatively unknown to the rest of the public.

He has four months to change that and get National’s polling back up to the high 30s or low 40s to give them a half decent chance.

He brings a new, less combative style that might work against Ardern. Or it might not.

What will be of more impact will be how the economy and unemployment levels react to the pandemic shock over the coming months.

And then, of course, the wild card of Winston Peters comes into play. But I am not speculating on his next moves other than from about now he will start distancing himself from the very Government he is part of. His well-used and mostly successful strategy of the past.

I had a brief email exchange with Muller a couple of days before his leadership bid.

I was unhappy with him dismissing the drought consultancy package as insulting to farmers when he reckoned what they need is feed and financial support from the Government instead.

My view is that independent and objective farm consultancy advice unclouded by emotion and stress on how to get through the coming tough winter is vitally important for many.

I was also surprised to hear the National Party calling for financial support for farmers, something I thought we had left behind in the 1980s.

He briefly thanked me for my perspective and said it was helpful.

I was hoping for a debate about his view on personal responsibility but realised a couple of days later he had bigger fish to fry.

Now he has a challenge and an opportunity.

If he does well and the chips fall his way he could have a chance of being prime minister on September 19.

If he does well and most of his colleagues keep their seats but he can’t form a government he could have another crack in 2023.

If things do not work out so great the party will be changing leader again within the next year or so.

It will be an interesting four months watching how things develop.

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