Friday, March 29, 2024

ALTERNATIVE VIEW: We have good cause for optimism

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We’ve done it.  After 75 days of lockdown, 28 in severe isolation, we’re back to normal. It is a massive achievement supported by many factors. For a start, our political leadership was sound and our bureaucracy up front and credible. 
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People accepted the severity of the situation and met the challenge.

The result is that we’ve beaten covid-19. I’m aware we will have more cases and handling them won’t be easy. What we’ve prevented, however, is a wholesale pandemic with major civil disruptions and deaths.

It’s now about the recovery and I’m more bullish than most.

Yes our tourism sector is smashed but can come back, albeit in a different format.

Our sporting life has been severely disrupted and the response of some our national bodies to that has left me wondering.

People’s shopping habits have also inevitably changed. If buyers are restricted by lockdowns they will consider alternatives. It’s up to the retail sector to adapt.

I could suggest much of the change was inevitable and all covid-19 did was accelerate it.

Our borders are closed despite howls from the tourism and hospitality industries including National’s finance spokesman Paul Goldsmith.

I want those borders cast-iron closed for as long as it takes.

I opposed the Avatar crew buying their way in here and was horrified at the lax quarantine they were subjected to.

If we’re going to have restricted entry then the quarantine should be fully supervised in a military establishment or similar.

We can’t take risks.

I also believe the Government support packages have been well targeted enabling companies to handle the new economy. The jobseeker benefit was necessary.

Think back to the mid 1980s when the Douglas-Prebble brigade totally pulled the plug on farming. That was every bit as severe as the covid-19 hit to the economy and was the result of political whim not pandemic.

Farming survived and eventually prospered. I believe the economy can too.

Just think if you are a big offshore investor where you would want to invest. Britain and the United States are in chaos. Australia is better but not much. In NZ you have a covid-free, stable democracy with what’s turned out to be an adaptable and competent bureaucracy.

It’s a no-brainer.

On the other side of the argument we have economists coming out of the woodwork predicting Armageddon on the job front.

My view is they are pessimistic and narrow with their outlook.

I’m considerably more optimistic.

For a start there are 50,000 jobs available in the dairy sector.

If airline pilots are queueing to stock supermarket shelves then surely diary work has considerable appeal and the pay is better.

Local defunct training provider Taratahi, previously badly mismanaged and governed, has a new lease of life with taster courses. You can enrol there and find out if you have any interest or ability in the primary sector.

That’s positive as are the comments coming out of Trade Minister David Parker’s office. He told Farmers Weekly “Agriculture and processed food are expected to fare slightly better than products with more complex supply chains.”

Horticulture has considerable potential as both an exporter and employer. While its employment practices in the past have left a lot to be desired, hopefully that will improve with the employment of Kiwis.

My dairy farmer friends tell me they are doing well.

My sheep and beef colleagues are doing okay post-drought.

Adviser and valuer Richard Moore of Wairarapa Property Consultants tells me it’s mainly business as usual with his clients combined with a touch of uncertainty.

People are optimistic.

Guy Farman of Farman Turkington Forestry says both the local and export wood markets are solid.

Masterton Mayor Lyn Patterson says the region is strong.

“We have the infrastructure, the land to expand and ultra-fast broadband. We are close to Wellington and have a strong community, great schools and an excellent hospital.”

My belief is that much of that is mirrored in other provinces.

I grew up on the South Island’s West Coast. There were few jobs there outside forestry, road works and mining. You either tried those or moved to a place that had the employment opportunities you wanted. People did and there was little if any unemployment. 

It is inevitable the provinces will get a much-needed boost from the covid crisis. Living in Auckland with its high cost of living will fast lose its attraction if your income is reduced or gone.

The cost of future-proofing the provinces is also a fraction of that of the big cities. We need infrastructure, water storage and fast on-farm broadband.

It’s a small price to pay.

Believe me, we will have a world recession.

My strong belief is NZ is in a better place than anywhere else.

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