It does feel like the new season lambs have been slower to come out than last year, though, in reality, the timing and numbers are consistent but the next few weeks will paint the picture better. In 2015 numbers shot up in the first week of November as threats of El Nino saw many push the offload button but with a very different season this year that push shouldn’t eventuate.
While there was talk that the lamb crop would be well down because of facial eczema and drought in the South Island it seems good survival rates to docking might have balanced the job and the North Island looks to be at similar levels to 2015 though falling flock numbers in the South Island have drastically reduced lamb numbers.
Both Feilding and Stortford Lodge have offered new season lambs in the past two weeks and while the new markets always start with a hiss and a roar (just look at the spring cattle markets) the lamb market has already shown signs of buttoning off.
It is still very much early days but the market appears more subdued than 2015 with prices about $5-$10/head down on first sales. In 2015 30kg lambs were trading about the $100 mark while to date $90-$95 is the going rate this year, with 25kg at $75 compared to $80. Very light lambs are selling better than in 2015.
No significant numbers of new season lambs have hit markets in the South Island and why would they when flock numbers are low anyway and most areas have grass coming out their ears. It looks as if there will be more of a push for those with lambs to finish them rather than sell in the store market and there is not expected to be any significant numbers of store lambs available before mid-November.
The lamb job will be interesting to watch as all fingers point towards a softer market as schedule prices will start dropping in early November and continue to do so with processors very concerned about the lack of demand. However, this is already being offset by buyers opting out of the expensive yearling and calf markets and turning their attention to fattening a few lambs, which could make store lambs expensive buying relative to schedule. As a sheep farmer one would hope that is the case, as at the moment, it looks like we are in for another trying season.
