Early in the new year when I heard news a couple of people had died from a new virus from a city in China I’d never heard of had me thinking someone knew this was a potentially big thing. After all, more than 20,000 people die every day in that country so this must be important.
And now, a month later, the issue is rapidly gathering steam.
We are already seeing the effects of efforts to nip it in the bud but more on that later.
With a world population closing in on eight billion and the greatest mobility of humans in history it surely is just a matter of time before there is a serious pandemic that sweeps across the globe. Rats in a cage comes to mind.
From the planet’s perspective and all the millions of other species we share it with a major culling of humankind can’t come soon enough. From humanity and an individual viewpoint it would be a devastating experience.
Will it be this one or another virus in the future? Will 21st century science overcome all the other contributing factors of modern life making this sort of thing inevitable? These, of course, are the big questions.
Coronaviruses cause the common cold. They are not influenza which is also deadly to humans. If you are fretting about the Wuhan coronavirus but not had your annual flu jab you have got your priorities wrong. Influenza kills more than 50,000 unvaccinated people each year.
I’ve had proper flu twice and after the second experience have had a jab every year. I don’t want to repeat the ordeal and am not keen on dying any time soon.
But this is not to underestimate what could happen with this novel cold virus.
At the time of writing there have been just 6000 confirmed cases and 130 deaths but, of course, it could be much higher and it could escalate quickly.
Wuhan has been isolated by the Chinese authorities to try to curb the spread but too late, I’d say. In just the few hours between the announcement of the lock-down and its enforcement 300,000 people took to their scuppers and fled the city.
And given that the city has direct international flights with all the major cities of the world the genie might be already out of the bottle.
There is some evidence this coronavirus is infectious for a week or so before people show any symptoms of illness. And, like any virus, you will get individuals who are asymptomatic – they have the virus yet don’t get sick but can transmit it. It’s all very well sticking a thermometer into plane passengers’ ears but if they haven’t started to get crook you won’t pick them up. Viruses are clever little beggars.
I had a look at the World Health Organisation’s recommendations for avoiding this virus and note it suggests avoiding sex with live wild or farm animals. I would have thought that’s decent advice for any time.
Scientists will be rapidly working on getting a vaccine for this particular virus. It will be interesting to see if the antivaxers hold their nerve or take the sensible option. Apparently, a lot of them quietly had their kids vaccinated during the measles outbreak recently.
The first economic impact we have seen is on the tourism industry with wide-scale cancellations of inbound tourists affecting tourist hot spots. Outbound numbers will rapidly drop if this concern about the virus escalates.
My sister and her husband are commercial crayfishers and the Chinese New Year has the best prices of the year. But China has said no to any live crayfish because no one is gathering for celebrations so suddenly they have no income at all.
And then there is the meat industry.
China has shut up shop and the onshore chillers and freezers are starting to fill quickly as Northland and Waikato are heading into drought and many other regions, like mine, are not far behind.
We need to keep destocking and getting prime stock killed yet the pipeline is rapidly filling.
Just when we thought the big fall in schedules had come to an end the supply and demand curves are rapidly shifting.
It just goes to show how things in the modern world of globalisation can change rapidly.
Uncertain and anxious times are ahead.
