Wednesday, April 24, 2024

FROM THE RIDGE: Magic covid cure seems unlikely

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Level two, level four, level three, level two and now level one. We’ve done very well as a nation to get to the position where it looks like we might very well have eradicated this virus from our shores though the future risk of importing it will remain a constant threat and a likelihood.
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Critics of the response have been proved wrong but probably more dangerous and damaging in a health emergency are those who criticise for the sake of it or for mere click bait.

A good example is Mike Hosking who didn’t even have the decency to be consistent.

On March 6 he told his many listeners everyone was overreacting to the virus. He advised the Government not to fall into the trap of providing economic stimulus.

A week later he was complaining the Government hadn’t been bold enough and should have moved faster to intervene in the economy.

A week further on in March he was telling anyone who would listen the virus was a very serious matter and the country needed immediately be put into lockdown.

After a week in lockdown he had a change of heart and was arguing once again the fuss over the virus was overblown and we should never have shut the country down.

All this in March and goodness knows where his mind and opinions have wandered during the next two and a half months.

There has been no talk of any sort of level zero. Is there such a thing? It would indicate life pre-covid-19 but that is not going to happen in a hurry, maybe never.

Now we have our own house in order, before we can interact with the world again and loosen our borders, we rely on other countries doing the same. Australia is our best candidate because not only does it contribute 40% of our tourists but it has the pandemic well under control. But not quite yet. It still has more than 500 active cases and is getting several new cases a day.

A lot of talk in recent months is that countries will do their best to get through this epidemic until the salvation of a vaccine is delivered to us by science.

Despite scores of labs working furiously at developing a vaccine the most optimistic prediction is that a successful one might be available early next year but that is unlikely.

Most vaccines take up to a decade to get to market because extensive animal then human trials are done to make sure they are both effective and safe.

It should also be noted that despite decades of attempts there are still no vaccines for some serious human health diseases such as HIV/Aids, malaria and dengue fever to name a few.

Even if one did become available sometime next year it takes a long time to build up stocks then we need to decide which of the nearly eight billion of us get it first and how much it will cost

The rich will probably be first. If you live in Chad, Haiti and maybe even NZ you might be waiting in line for some years.

That’s why the Government has put money into our own vaccine trials.

Then there is a problem that if it’s like the polio vaccine it will protect for life but if its like the flu vaccine it will give only temporary protection.

It seems if a low-cost, readily available and effective vaccine becomes available in the short term a lot of our problems will dissipate but don’t hold your breath.

Finally, a lot of commentary is that yes, we have done well in handling the health crisis but we have put our economy into a recession to do it.

Several robust studies of past epidemics including the 1919 Spanish flu show the countries and regions that did as we have done not only had a greatly reduced loss of life and other health effects but came out of it economically quicker and in better shape than those places that mishandled the crisis.

It is the epidemic that brings on a recession, not the response.

But it is going to be exceedingly difficult for many people in the months and possibly years ahead.

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