In a business case analysis provided to the Ministry for the Environment, ECan outlined significant fundamental change needed to bring the lake, one of New Zealand’s most polluted, into line.
“On the current basis to achieve Government freshwater outcomes as mandated it would mean taking all intensive agriculture, not just dairy, out of the play,” ECan councillor and Selwyn district farmer John Sunckell said.
“Low intensity farming could survive but that would be like the equivalent of half a sheep to the hectare on the upper plains,” he said.
Lake Ellesmere, being an open lake, was a “totally different beast”, Sunckell said and needed to be accounted as such under proposed water quality standards.
“It’s not possible in a lifetime – maybe in two to three generations we might get close to it.”
ECan had advised the Government of the impracticality of meeting current standards and the resulting impact on the region.
Wiping out intensive farming would result in a $300 million annual loss in the district’s operating surplus that would drastically impact on its economic and social fabric.
There would effectively be no irrigation or intensive land use in the catchment – such large scale effective retirement of intensive land had not been experienced in New Zealand on any scale and the implications would be far reaching, ECan said.
Potentially there would be a reduction in employment, bankruptcies and depopulation.
“The bottom line is to achieve government’s intended outcome it would wipe all intensive agriculture out of the region, totally devastating the economic and social wellbeing of the whole Selwyn district,” Sunckell said.
North Canterbury Federated Farmers president Lynda Murchison said the Selwyn-Waihora water management committee had done a lot of work and assessments to get Lake Ellesmere to a realistic Trophic Level Index (TLI), the measure used for overall lake health.
The business case analysis reflected the initial information provided to the Selwyn-Waihora zone committee when the business plan was being developed.
While some had wanted it set at three to four, Murchison said 6.6 was more realistic to achieve.
The higher the TLI the greater the nutrient load.
Lake Ellesmere had a TLI of about 6.3 with the proposed standard requiring a score of 5.
“The problem with all of this is that one boot does not fit all types,” Murchison said.
Lake Ellesmere was coastal hapua, bottom of catchment and had always been nutrient rich.
“There is an issue of whether the national standards for lakes is appropriate for coastal hapua.”
Murchison said the second issue was around what was now and what would be.
“You can only ever do what you know – the science is rocketing around nutrients and in 10-15 years from now nitrate loss from farming may no longer be the issue it is now.”
Murchison said based on what it knew, ECan had applied for the lake to be excluded from national standards because of the scale of the pollution and the fact it was coastal hapua.
“Right now to meet freshwater mandate it would be a social and economic Armageddon.
“It’s taken 160 years to get the lake to its current status.
“You can’t expect an overnight fix.
“It’s a long haul game and meantime people shouldn’t despair that this will be the situation forever,” Murchison said.
