A proviso is events can change quickly and there is considerable uncertainty over issues like Brexit and foreign exchange impacts, Stevens said.
Both Affco and Silver Fern Farms report stock flows into processing plants are building-up rapidly with the demand for cattle kill putting more pressure on most of the companies than the lamb demand.
Affco plants across the North Island are full of lambs and working to capacity but there is a reasonable balance between bookings and processing capacity, avoiding significant delays.
After a very slow first three or four months as lambs struggled to reach target weights in damp conditions the warmer conditions in recent weeks mean processing volumes have now reached their usual levels.
From being about 6% below last season’s levels in the week ending January 12 the North Island kill is now down about 3.5% or 130,000 lambs, Stevens estimated.
In contrast, the South Island remains slow, down by about 15% on last season.
Affco’s Easter chilled programme will be completed by the end of February and livestock volumes have been consistent with forecast and match sale orders.
North Island mutton volumes are down at 11% on last season and South Island down nearly 30%.
Affco is now getting significant cattle volumes following the slow first-quarter when farmers used plentiful feed to get weight on their animals. Bookings are in excess of capacity for all cattle, including cows.
“It’s always difficult to look too far ahead with cattle volumes being dependent on how weather conditions unfold over the next few weeks.”
Silver Fern Farms is now also flat-tack with cattle processing, supply chain general manager Dan Boulton said.
“We’re doing overtime where we need to, daily and on Saturdays, and we expect this for the next couple of weeks. It’s dry and farmers are getting nervous.”
Stock flows in the North Island have been picking up for a while and the lower North Island has now joined in. If anything, South Island stock flows are putting more pressure on capacity.
There are no long waiting times yet for cattle bookings but that could change if the weather remained as dry as it has been, Boulton said.
He also reported strong lamb flows and the company is on top of its Easter chilled programme. South Island supply is well balanced.
“We’re getting a constant flow in the lower South Island but the upper part has been tougher for lambs getting to target weights and some killing is being deferred.”
