It estimates there were about 552,000 fewer lambs tailed in 2019.
Chief economist Andrew Burtt said while there was a record high lambing percentage in spring 2018 it was always going to be difficult to match after conditions were favourable overall that year.
Last year some regional declines were a little surprising and a reminder of the natural systems farmers have to work with.
There were strong regional variations and lamb growth rates were better in the North Island than in the South Island.
“The South Island and Otago in particular really struggled in 2019 due to drier conditions leading to lower feed availability,” Burtt said.
Otago had it’s lowest result since 2010 with a decrease of 5.4 points from 2018 to 116.6%, continuing the decline since the 142.3% in 2017.
“When considering these numbers we need to keep in mind that not all regions experience the same conditions for weather and pasture growth and other challenges occur. We shouldn’t expect regions to perform exactly the same,” he said.
The lower lambing percentage is expected to affect the number of lambs processed for export in the first quarter of 2019-20 season but it is expected to see the number of adult sheep processed increase by 9.2%.
The number of lambs from ewe hoggets also fell with fewer ewe hoggets being mated.
The overall tonnage of lamb produced is expected to decrease 4.4% from a combination of fewer lambs and a slightly lower average carcase weight.
