Slaughter numbers in the first quarter of the meat processing year (October to December) were at historically low levels but since the start of January Affco’s processing plants have filled up as conditions become drier, national livestock manager Tom Young said.
Silver Fern Farms chief executive Simon Limmer said December schedules above $7 did not reflect market returns as processors inflated prices to attract stock.
“Based on pure in-market returns we would have seen a schedule below $7 at Christmas as was forecast.
The prices were unsustainable and Limmer expects a correction to reflect market returns and for stock flows to start picking up in the next six to eight weeks.
“December would have been particularly poor for processors who were geared up for normal stock flows, which did not come forward,” he said.
Invercargill consultant Deane Carson of Agribusiness Consultants said normally by this time of year his clients would have killed 20% of their lambs but have so far they have killed only 12%, albeit at almost 0.5kg heavier.
AgriHQ market analyst Mel Croad said December’s beef kill was also low with North Island bull beef peaking at 17,800 head a week compared to 22,000 a year earlier.
Pre-Christmas lamb prices included procurement premiums and the schedule has already eased 30 to 40c/kg.
Young said lamb schedule prices of $7.20-$7.25/kg might ease back a little more but they aren’t about to collapse.
Prime steers are $5.30/kg for the local market and a little more for export while export bulls are holding around $5.
Alliance livestock and shareholder services manager Heather Stacy said even with increased stocking rates and more balage and silage being made, farmers are struggling to maintain pasture quality.
Higher lambing percentages with more multiple births this season have meant lower birth weights and lambs taking longer to finish.
AgriHQ Livestock Eye operations manager Suz Bremner said the exceptional grass growth has created greater interest in store stock but the higher prices have kept them out of the market.
Abundant grass means small store lamb offerings at Stortford Lodge in Hastings but at Fielding 31kg lambs are making $3.80 a kilo. A year earlier at 28-29kg store lambs were making $3.15.
In the South Island most store lambs are being sold on-farm and at recent Canterbury sales store and prime lambs averaged $115 to $120, an increase of about $30 on a year earlier.
Interest in sheep is showing little let up with prices at early season North Island breeding ewe fairs $50 to $60 higher than last year.
