Drier conditions in the north, notably around Northland and Manawatu, have resulted in a good catch-up in tallies since processing plants resumed full time after Christmas-New Year, AgriHQ senior analyst Mel Croad said.
The numbers still trail the previous season’s tallies by quite a distance, partly because of a rush of stock into the works in December 2017.
The latest public figures on the lamb kill are for the end of the 15th week of the season, ending January 12. At that time the South Island kill was down 14.6% on last season, a drop of 430,000 head, while the North Island was down 6% or 187,000 head.
There was some pick-up, especially in the north, from week 14 and numbers can be expected to have risen further since then.
The slower kill has put pressure on processing companies trying to get lambs in to fill the valuable Easter chilled orders from Britain and mainland Europe markets. The last supply ships should be leaving New Zealand ports in late February with much smaller volumes going later by air.
“There’s no panic yet as long as volumes rise as we forecast,” Alliance livestock and shareholder services general manager Heather Stacy said.
“We do need a good flow.”
Though North Island supply is picking up, Anzco Foods wants it pick up further and South Island numbers are still a bit light, supply chain and livestock general manager Grant Bunting said. But that could change as conditions dry out.
The group is confident of filling the North Island content of its Easter chilled orders but the issue for the industry is that most of the big processing plants and lambs are in the South Island. The slight lift in carcase weights has partly offset lower numbers.
A lift in store lamb trading numbers generally precedes a surge in numbers to plants but that isn’t happening yet in the south.
Croad said schedules for the week just ended were firm at an average of $7.20/kg in the North Island and averaging $6.90/kg in the South Island.
For farmers deciding when to send lambs for processing, Bunting said the risk is that schedules will soon reflect the post-Easter period and not have the chilled premiums.
Stacy said shareholder/suppliers are being asked to work with their agents and book stock in ahead to be sure of space when processing pinch points are reached. That also insures against potential bad weather that might cause a supply-rush. Supply under the group’s minimum-price supply contracts will help smooth that out.
Lambs are starting to flow in, with good weights and yields, in the southern regions, which have the big lamb numbers, but she cautioned lambs should not be allowed to get too heavy, which might not meet the chilled specifications.
While the feed situation is terrific in much of the South Island there are areas where pasture quality has fallen away because stock cannot keep up with the growth and that has been quite challenging for farmers.
Croad said the lower kill rates at this time of year will not necessarily mean a greater winter supply because of the big shortage of lambs compared to last season. She thinks there could be a larger autumn offload as the lambs held back for longer will finally need to be processed.
