Friday, March 29, 2024

Ewe prices heading up

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The lowest mutton kill in eight years has livestock representatives predicting soaring in-lamb ewe prices come winter.      The AgriHQ livestock insight has reported the season to date mutton kill is the lowest it has been since the 2011-2012 season, a signal to industry that supply versus demand will dictate breeding ewe prices again this season.
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In the latest slaughter statistics the total mutton kill was 19.5% behind last year. 

The North Island mutton kill is down 9% on last year and 17% on the five-year average while the South Island is down 29% from last year, 21% on the five-year average, in the season to date. 

Data shows the mutton kill this season is not totally out of proportion with the estimated number of ewes. 

In the data available to date about 14% of the estimated number of breeding ewes have been culled. 

The key driver of this lower kill rate is the lower number of breeding ewes on hand. 

Beef and Lamb NZ estimates indicate that the number of breeding ewes has dropped by almost 800,000 head in the past two seasons.

Manawatu-based PGG Wrightson livestock agent Maurice Stewart said high prices paid for breeding ewes early in the season, coupled with the drought conditions had motivated farmers to send ewes away to the works early. 

“A lot of ewes have gone to the works because of the drought conditions here and the good money being paid for ewes early in the year so I think the scanning rate will be back.”  

Stewart also predicted a greater number of dry ewes due to the drought suggesting winter in-lamb ewe prices will soar to align with supply versus demand.

“Lesser numbers will push prices up at in-lamb ewe fairs following scanning.

“I expect given the low number of ewes around together with the good mutton schedule and lamb schedules looking to hold up that it will take $200 plus to buy a good in-lamb ewe come June.”

Canterbury-based Hazlett livestock agent Geoff Wright echoed his call.

“I wouldn’t think you will buy good breeding ewes for anything less than $200.

“That’s if we even get them to sell,” Wright said.

 “I only know of small numbers likely to come forward for the June-July ewe fairs down here.”

Wright said while supply versus demand underpinned the sheep industry, adding to that is the lesser number of farmers actually wanting to lamb ewes.

“Young people are not wanting to lamb ewes these days so that’s also a factor in the number of breeding ewes around.

“Pricing has got to a situation of supply and demand and I can’t see that changing anytime soon,” Wright said.

AgriHQ senior livestock analyst Suz Bremner was a little more conservative.

“There are very few surplus ewes and despite the mutton and lamb schedules underpinning the potential, I don’t think it will see any records broken.”

Looking back to 2011 when the winter in-lamb ewe fair prices hit tops of $220, Bremner expected the exceptionally high prices paid for breeding ewes at the start of the year to hold prices about equal to the $200-$220 of 2011.

“Vendors will be rewarded,” she said.

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