Northland, Auckland, Coromandel, Bay of Plenty and Waikato have got up to 400% more rain this month than the historical average for the first two weeks in February.
February rain is already double what fell in January — about 220mm for Dargaville and Kaikohe and a drenching 280mm for Kerkeri.
NIWA maps show the 400%-plus rain anomaly reflected in soil moisture anomalies of plus 40-60mm everywhere north of Lake Taupo and in Nelson-Marlborough.
NIWA chief forecaster Chris Brandolino said climate change might not affect the amount of rain received by NZ rural locations over a year but its distribution is already changing.
The 500mm-plus received over the upper north in the past six weeks is an example of that changed distribution.
But the rain came after a dry December so totals for summer might not be much different from normal.
Brandolino said two weather stations in Auckland, those at Leigh and Warkworth, already had their wettest February on record and more locations will join them if the ex-tropical Cyclone Gita makes landfall.
Once through late February and early March the weather will be more settled though March always carries the risk of more ex-tropical cyclones.
MetService warned that as Gita crosses the country it will bring a period of high-impact severe weather.
Bay of Islands farm consultant Aaron Baker, of Total-Ag, said pasture growth from the extraordinary amount of rain since Christmas means Northland farmers are very under-stocked.
Consequently, they are paying big money for young cattle. He had heard of nearly $1000 for 180kg weaners.
Store lambs at $90 to $100 were a possibility, offering the prospect of a margin if the schedule stayed about $7/kg.
Contractors are using every dry hour to cut and bale surplus grass, where ground conditions allow, and rampant kikuyu will need mulching and over-sowing in autumn.
Constant rain and saturated soils are hampering machinery operations like fertiliser spreading, spraying out and sowing.
Summer crops have flourished and so farmers were tempted to hang on for longer but the risks include not being able to turn the ground over and get it planted again before winter.
“We need 10 to 14 days of fine weather to dry out enough to get the tractor out.
“These are challenging times because most of our summers recently have been dry.
“This one has been incredibly wet,” Baker said.
