He thought it unlikely National would gain a big enough tally of MPs to govern a fourth term without New Zealand First, so charging for the bottling of exported water looked like a minimum legislative outcome.
Labour might need to provide further reassuring details of its commercial water charging policy, just to address the fears in the rural economy.
“If it doesn’t explain then there is a risk that will play badly in regional NZ.
“But it will play well in urban areas where the access of farmers to water without payment is seen quite adversely.”
NZ First was riding both horses – charges for bottled water but no charges on consented water users – with which National might have to agree.
The Government was anxious to avoid claims by Maori to ownership of a common resource and all the complexities that would follow.
Shaw said, as always, economic conditions would play a major part in the election.
In the regions that was linked to demographics, especially the aging population and the loss of young people to cities.
“The provinces have a looming problem with the imbalance of the number of people in retirement versus the numbers available to do the work.”
That was not same in the cities where a figure of 70,000 a year net immigration was often seen as a threat to the NZ way of life.
For that reason National quickly soft-pedalled on immigration cuts after pushback from farmers, whereas that was a central plank of NZ First policy.
“The labour market is tight and the supply of school leavers is much lower now so immigration has to be a way to get workers.
“But immigration has become weaponised about other things such as national identity and cultural values.”
Peters was appealing very strongly to that section of regional people who were often older, sick to death of hearing about Auckland and were worried about the decline of the regions.
Most of the 26 rural and regional electorates were not going to change hands but Peters had the potential to eat into National’s party vote in the provinces through populist appeal.
NZ First billboards in Northland featured a smiling Peters and just two words: “Had enough?”
That was an appeal to emotions, not on the basis of any policies, Shaw said.
“He senses that there might be an appetite for change but I am not sure that it is as strong as it was in 2008 (when John Key tipped out Helen Clark).
“But we have a third-term National government without its most successful asset (Key).
“Perhaps Peters thinks the provincial voters have had enough of the urban-liberal types who run National.”
Many voters struggled to make sense of the complexities of policy and tapping into their emotions was an effective way of mobilising them.
Peters posed the rhetorical question but left voters to fill in the answers.
Shaw thought Labour or NZ First might appeal to sections of provincial voters who were on low or no incomes.
Another group was disenchanted with politics in general and Labour in particular because they felt ground down and that parties were not responsive.
National’s traditional platform of self-help and support for the primary sector did not speak to those cynical voters but Peters believed he could re-connect with them.
“There is a growing concern about entrenched income inequality.
“National will emphasise its safe economic stewardship, with good reason, but that income gap hasn’t closed.”
The allegiance of provincial NZ with the National Party was deep and historical, even though a large chunk of National’s policies and candidates were firmly urban.
“Bill English hasn’t been a farmer for a long time but he can make that claim to being of the land,” Shaw said.
He found the response of National to new Labour leader Jacinda Ardern very interesting.
“They haven’t gone after her and been very careful not to say anything that might be construed as patronising or sexist.
“National is taking time to figure out how to deal with the Ardern factor and I am sure one of its responses will be to point out her inexperience.”
Ardern’s comeback would be that she had been in Parliament a lot longer than Key when he became National leader and then Prime Minister.
