Thursday, March 28, 2024

Dry weather brings warnings

Neal Wallace
The country could be headed for drought with no widespread rain expected for the next month to provide relief from the sweltering start to summer, Weather Watch head forecaster Philip Duncan says.
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Farmers have contacted him concerned at the dry conditions and with little obvious respite he has warned the Ministry for Primary Industries there are signs the country could be in the early phases of a drought.

“I think we’re going into one but it is a long way off being declared.

“It is very dry and some areas on the east coast of both islands and north of Auckland towards Whangarei are the areas to watch.

“Western areas such as the West Coast, Taranaki and Manawatu have a better chance of getting a bit of rain.”

NIWA principal forecasting scientist Chris Brandolino said that after a dry start to summer most parts of the country, except the South Island’s east coast, should by the end of the season have near normal summer rainfall.

An unseasonably dry, hot November and early December had forced farmers and growers to look at their options.

In recent weeks Southland dairy farmers had started feeding grain and palm kernel and were considering 16 hours milking intervals.

Central Otago orchardists reported some apricot varieties were ready to pick several weeks earlier than normal and exports of other types of fruit had started early.

Low river flows forced the Otago Regional Council to impose restrictions on water takes from the Taieri, Pomahaka and Kakanui rivers.

Otago Regional Council environmental monitoring and operations director Scott MacLean said light snow caps meant rivers were not being recharged by snow melt.

“It is early in the season to be getting this situation and it is being exacerbated by the lack of snow on the hills.”

Duncan said the cause for the heat and dryness was persistent, large, high weather systems parked over the country that blocked wet fronts inundating parts of Australia from reaching us.

“I don’t see anything at this stage leading to the upsetting of that pattern.”

Rain was forecast for December 15 but was likely to be confined to the west coasts of the South Island and lower North Island with little expected to reach eastern areas or the north of the North Island.

Later in summer those dominant dry weather systems could lose some of their hold, allowing wet fronts to cross the Tasman or sub tropical rainmakers to venture south.

“We are very dry very early and very hot very early and there is no sign that is about to change.”

Brandolino said that after a dry start, the La Nina weather pattern would weaken, providing the northern and eastern parts of the North Island with normal to above normal rain.

Areas in the rest of the North Island, the north and west of the South Island could also end up with near normal rain but for the rest of the island rainfall could be near to below normal.

The south of the South Island enjoyed idyllic spring conditions and while feed was still available, regular rain stopped falling in November, slowing regrowth. Regional council data showed most southern areas had less than 20mm of rain in the last month.

North Otago Federated Farmers president Simon Williamson said rain so far this year was 100mm below average.

Otago Federated Farmers president Phill Hunt said summer reliable areas like south Otago were getting dry and he had heard of farmers delaying the purchase of store stock because of the conditions.

Otago dairy sector chairman Stephen Crawford said dairy farmers were not hitting the panic button just yet but the lack of rain was affecting management decisions.

The federation’s Southland president Allan Baird said this was the driest spring he had experienced in 12 years with 175mm falling from August to November. He had previously recorded 300mm over the same period.

Baird said the time was looming for farmers to take remedial action such as culling poor performing cows while sheep farmers were quitting old ewes and having early drafts.

Alexandra fruit grower Earnscy Weaver said the fruit season was one of the earliest he had experienced.

“And I’ve seen a lot of them.”

The first Sundrop apricot varieties were being harvested in early December when picking usually started around New Year. Fruit quality was high because of the heat.

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