Farmers’ Weekly weather forecaster Philip Duncan of Weather Watch is confident of an early spring, with temperatures already hovering above average for the past two weeks.
“People have asked me that if we are seeing this weather now does that mean we are also going to see an early, hot summer.
“However, I would tend to say you have to look at the season for what it is and this year we are looking at what could simply be a longer spring.”
That forecast will be welcomed by farmers in the upper North Island in particular who spent much of 2017 inundated with rain that pushed regional totals to near record highs.
By early September last year Bay of Plenty had on average already exceeded its annual total, in some cases by 20-25%, thanks in part to the devastating cyclones that struck in March-April.
By this time last year Waikato and Auckland were also approaching their yearly averages.
An upside-down season had farmers struggling to get critical maize crops in the ground until November in some districts while agricultural contractors had parked equipment because there was little surplus grass and ground conditions were poor.
But unseasonal March growth meant spring-like areas of silage were being harvested.
Now there are grounds for optimism heading into a new growth season this week with spring arriving.
Total Ag consultant Rob Macnab in Waikato said his clients are generally in a happier place with coastal properties wetter than those inland but generally good grass growth throughout the winter.
“It has been a bit harder for anyone running heavier cattle on the wetter coastal country but, overall, it’s pretty good.”
His Northland colleague Aaron Baker said the region has enjoyed a kind winter with wetter conditions on the Dargaville coast drying out in July.
“But we have not had any of those significant rainfall events that have caused major flooding.
“We don’t have an avalanche of feed coming on but most farmers would be feeling pretty comfortable.”
DairyNZ senior consulting officer Kevin McKinley said it is a qualified yes about this year being better than last winter.
“It is still proving pretty tough for farmers on the coastal areas, being quite wet underfoot, even though rainfall has been less than last year.
“The guys up in the hills on well-drained soils are enjoying good winter growth levels. Cow condition is generally pretty good too.”
Duncan said as far as winters go this year’s was a healthy one with a good mix of rain, frosts and warmer weather.
“Canterbury farmers have noticed colder days with warm temperatures at night meaning fewer frosts there this year.
“Weather patterns in general have been these longer periods of no rain then a couple of days each month with quite heavy rainfall.”
He discounted risks the country might be facing an El Nino weather pattern of any significance this spring-summer.
“It is being measured at the equator as being quite weak, meaning its influence will be even less down here.”
He maintains the more chaotic nature of weather patterns appearing across New Zealand are more favourable for farming than for other weather-dependent sectors like tourism.
“When you get hit by a southerly you are more likely now to know the next day will bring a warmer wind, compared to those times when we would get those long periods of constant southerlies that would hit farms hard.”
He acknowledges the nervousness felt by farmers when they look at the dry conditions in Australia.
“But we have to remember, to even experience a small period with elevated temperatures influenced by Australia’s weather we need certain wind and weather patterns and they do not come around that often.”
