Kiwifruit could be grown in parts of Canterbury and commercial banana plantations might appear in Northland by 2050 as the country’s climate warms.
NIWA principal climate scientist Andrew Tait said in general the climate in 2050 will be wetter in the south and west of the country but drier in the north and the east in what will be a gradual transition to a climate on average 1C warmer.
The impact of climate change in the second half of this century will be even more pronounced, with the temperatures 2C hotter than now and average rainfall and temperatures differing by up to 10% from today.
New Zealand has signed up to the Paris Agreement, committing to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and slow global warming to 1C by 2050 and 1C from 2050 to 3000.
Tait said Southland in 2050 will be a major beneficiary of climate change with a longer grass growing season from a wetter but warmer climate while Northland will be drier and warmer.
Conversely, the North Island’s east coast will be more drought prone, which could affect the viability of hill-country sheep and beef farmers.
Kiwifruit production might struggle in traditional areas with orchards forced to move inland, to higher elevation and south to Canterbury to get enough winter chilling to provoke natural bud burst.
Central Otago could be a bit wetter and warmer, bringing into question its niche as the world’s most southern pinot noir grape-growing region, forcing a change to new varieties to cope with its warmer winters.
If farmers are struggling now it will not get any easier in the next 30 to 80 years.
“Climate change will, at the current margins, make it harder to be profitable doing what we’re currently doing.”
There will also be more issues with weeds and pests migrating with the changing climate.
“As a rule of thumb, if you see things in the north now, they are likely to more south.”
Technology has advanced markedly in the last 30 years and will do so in the next 30 years, providing technology, science and genetics to help farmers.
The increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere could boost pasture and plant growth by up to 10% but countering that could be higher rates of evapotranspiration from hotter temperatures and the impact of more frequent, severe weather events such as drought, flood, storms and coastal erosion.
“The carbon dioxide effect is stronger (on production) than the negative affect of climate change.” he said.
While harder to model, the extreme weather events could counter those productivity gains.
Snow levels are likely to rise and ski fields will increasingly rely on snow making but the North Island is unlikely to become snow-free.
“There are still likely to be heavy snowfalls from southerly blasts off the Antarctic but it could mean the snow will not lie around for as long at sea level but melt more quickly.”
Tait said the climate will change slowly and might not be so obvious to those without weather records but it will test the ability of farmers to adapt their management.
“We’ll see change by 2050 when we look back over the last 30 years but it won’t be dramatic.”
The Government is consulting on its Zero Carbon Bill, which includes new emission targets to replace the current 2050 target of a 50% reduction of greenhouse gas emissions below 1990 levels.
The options being discussed are reducing carbon dioxide emissions to zero, reducing emissions of long-lived gases such as CO2 and nitrous oxide to zero while stabilising short-lived gases such as methane and net zero emissions of all greenhouse gases.
A Ministry for the Environment economic analysis of those options conceded businesses like agriculture could become less competitive if climate actions lead to higher costs than their overseas competitors.
But, equally, moving to a low-zero carbon economy will encourage innovation and give NZ first-mover advantage.
Economic modelling assumes agricultural emissions face an emissions charge, scientists discover a methane vaccine that reduces emissions by between 20% and 30% and there are no more dairy conversions from 2025.
It also assumes shifts in consumer preferences by 2050 will reduce global demand for dairy by 11% and red meat by 15%.
By 2050 household income will increase 40% following measures to curb climate change, compared to 55% if no action is taken.
It also estimates economic growth could be 0.2% lower.
Beef + Lamb NZ innovation manager Richard Wakelin expects new uses to be made of existing forages such as lucerne, fodder beet and chicory and for livestock genetics to be more closely tailored to consumer requirements.
Wakelin said changes will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary.
He sees the biggest challenges for farming in 2050 being demands on people dealing with data and traceability required to meet compliance obligations such as monitoring carbon, soil and water.
He believes the sector’s workforce will increasingly come from people not associated with farming but seeking a career change.
The tools used to gather and decipher data and information covering what is produced, when and how it is produced will differ greatly from today and on a scale comparable to the change in technology that evolved in the last 30 years.
Cell fingerprinting to tell the origin of an animal, the production system used and what it was fed or treated with will be in common use and technology will help manage that influx of data.
Climate Change Minister James Shaw predicts agriculture in 2050 will remain one of the country’s major industries but the rural landscape will differ.
Farms in 2050 will be more mixed, incorporating forestry, pasture and ruminant animals but with greater use of new precision-agriculture technology that will effectively result in no waste of water and fertiliser through runoff.
Shaw predicts more focus on regenerating soil.
The Ministry for the Environment’s Our Climate Your Say document said large scale forest planting is needed to help NZ meet its emission reduction targets, estimating up to 10% of NZ’s landmass will be planted in new trees.
That planting includes a million hectares of land prone to extreme erosion.
Shaw said that will not mean pinus radiata plantations blanketing the landscape.
A policy of right tree, right place, right time is being adopted to ensure the right tree species – a mix of native and introduced – are planted in the right places.
Modelling indicates the economy should continue to grow as low-carbon policies are introduced but Shaw acknowledges some rural communities could struggle as trees replace livestock.
He said the Government will provide resources and programmes to help those communities adapt.
He is uncertain how extensive alternative plant-based protein products will be and expects some farmers to be growing crops for that market.
Consumers will continue to demand animal-based protein and Shaw believes they will be prepared to pay premium prices.
“There will still be quite a segment of the market prepared to pay premium prices for the real thing so long as it is gold-plated in terms of having a low environmental impact and being ethically produced.”
While agriculture will continue to be a key export earner in 2050, information technology along with tourism and energy exports using hydrogen technology will have grown.
