Into the new year, prices were forecast to be in the $4.80 to $5 range for the period through to the end of March, outgoing livestock general manager Murray Behrent told Canterbury shareholders in Darfield.
A supply shortage for mutton could see the schedule in the $2.75 to $3 range until Christmas then down to $2.40 to $2.70, depending on supply.
The company had been getting price increases in the 8% range for chilled lamb in the United Kingdom but that was being offset by an 11% to 13% lift in the value of the New Zealand dollar against sterling, he said.
Chief executive David Surveyor said Alliance had got its lamb price forecasts very wrong last season because of volatility in the markets and in foreign exchange rates, with returns much lower than initially expected.
“We could be wrong again this year, there’s so much volatility, the world is changing rapidly but we can try to give you a steer where it's going.”
Behrent, who has bought a motel in Akaroa but will remain with the company to deal with the group’s largest farm suppliers and iwi, said prime beef prices were expected to be firm in the short term but manufactured beef for the United States market was down about US20c/lb, putting the manufacturing cow price at about $3.80 to $4/kg.
Prime steer prices were expected in the $5.40 to $5/kg range in the first quarter of the trading year then $4.80 to $5 after Christmas.
Bull prices would be in the $4.80 to $5 range pre-Christmas then expected at about $4.60.
Venison was improving off a low base, with chilled prices at between $8.60 and $9.30/kg in the first quarter, moving to $8.30 to $8.50 in the second quarter.
Alliance planned to move its southern venison processing from Makarewa to a new plant at Lorneville near Invercargill.
The Makarewa site had been sold and the gain from that would be used to build the new plant, which would benefit from the overall scale of the Lorneville operations, Surveyor said.
There would not be any job losses caused by the Makarewa closure.
