With the 2019 United Kingdom lamb crop expected to be similar to this year, the report’s global trade conclusion is that available supplies are also likely to show little year-on-year change over the next 12 months.
“New Zealand production is forecast to decline slightly although Australia is forecasting some small uplift,” the report said.
“Demand in China is expected to remain strong, however, which may limit any increase in UK lamb imports, depending on farmgate prices across the world.”
The board’s analysts also forecast a same-again year for lamb exports. Britain exports 48,762 tonnes of lamb against imports of 58,205 tonnes.
Board market intelligence head Phil Bicknell said it has rarely been as difficult to forecast the future for farmers, largely because of the impacts of politics and the weather.
“With 2018 characterised by huge uncertainty the one clear certainty is that the UK farming industry is on the brink of significant change.
“As such, we’ve combined the latest data with our own analysts’ expertise plus feedback from contacts across the agri-food industry to present a full picture of what’s happening across our key farming commodities.
“In the midst of volatile markets, politics and weather it’s no straightforward task to look ahead but it’s this very uncertainty that makes it more crucial than ever.”
With Brexit and the United States-China trade dispute adding daily to business uncertainties the report’s sector-by-sector assessment of 2019 prospects is issued alongside the warning that all forecasts are very much as viewed at the time of writing.
That certainly applies to Britain’s sheep meat trade, which draws 82% of its imports from non-European Union suppliers but depends on EU customers for 95% of lamb export sales.
The report also addresses the impact on red meat sales resulting from negative press coverage, especially for processed meats.
“Data from Kantar Worldpanel has shown that volume sales of red meat are down 2.3% year-on-year with beef, lamb and pork volume sales behind the same period last year,” it said, adding that a modest decline in primary red meat consumption can be expected in 2019.
That is because of ongoing pressure from a gradual shift away from traditional meat and two veg options towards more dish-based cuisines.
“There is also further pressure from consumers looking to moderate consumption, often referred to as flexitarians,” the report said.
“Kantar Worldpanel defines flexitarians more tightly as consumers cutting down on red meat for health reasons and sizes this group of people at 7% of the population.
“This outlook might be mitigated by the industry working to achieve a better fit for red meat within popular dish-based cuisines and clearly communicating the health benefits of red meat to counter any health concerns.”
