“Our current consumption levels of fresh produce in retail and food service show that net production is already below what is required for domestic consumption, meaning we can expect food shortages,” Horticulture New Zealand says.
And while people might consider growers had a moral obligation to feed New Zealanders first they were running market-driven businesses subject to supply and demand and international pressures.
Threats to supply came from urban sprawl, water restrictions, climate change, export demand and labour shortages, a Hort NZ report calling for the Government to set a Domestic Food Security Policy, says.
Though 60% of the country’s $5.6 billion a year of horticultural produce, excluding wine, was exported, bringing $3.4b in overseas earnings, most of the vegetables grown in NZ were eaten here.
“There is an assumption that NZ is a land of plenty and we will always have enough locally grown food to feed our population supplement by imported food when there is demand,” Hot NZ president Julian Raine and Mike Chapman said in a forward to the report.
However, other countries were also experiencing problems with fresh produce supplies.
Latest reports said the number of vegetable farms in Australia fell more than a third in the last decade as farmers battled urban sprawl and tighter margins.
An Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences said 37% of vegetable growers had gone since 2006. The loss was caused by urban sprawl, tighter margins and an inability for smallholders to compete with corporations and imports.
In Britain fresh produce suppliers were under extreme strain as multiple pressures built amid predictions they were heading for a crash. They faced retailer pressure to cut costs, squeezed margins, labour uncertainties and added wages costs.
A survey by business consultancy Plimsoll found 256 of 1270 fresh produce companies were in danger and 176 needed caution. Last year 354 of them made a loss and the average profit margin in the sector was 1.1%.
In NZ a perfect storm was brewing to disrupt the supply of healthy food, Raine said.
“Prime fruit and vegetable growing land is being squeezed by rapid growth in towns and cities and high demand for new housing.
“Emotional battles over water have the potential to leave growers high and dry.”
Weather changes with more frequent extreme rain, hail, snow, frost and drought were damaging and affecting the supply of fresh, healthy food with wide price fluctuations when supply was short and demand high.
“This can potentially put healthy food out of reach for some people.”
Things were changing fast in the industry run by 5500 growers employing 60,000 people.
“We need to look closely at our domestic food supply and be sure that town, city and regional planning decisions are seen in the context of impacting the whole of NZ’s food supply.
“Domestic supply is not being viewed as a national system with identified strengths and weaknesses to give New Zealanders continued access to all the fresh fruit and vegetables they need in the future.
“Local, district and regional decision-making doesn’t look beyond its borders.
“No consideration is given to national food supply when land is zoned for housing or water is allocated.
“A decision made in Hawke’s Bay, for example, may impact on food supply to the whole South Island.
Growers, facing a shortage of skilled workers, were also looking at how they could do more with less.
“The population they feed is growing but access to land and water is challenging.
“Our growing areas and the businesses that grow vegetables in NZ have consolidated, meaning the need to protect them for the future is more important than ever.
“Are we in danger of leaving New Zealanders with not enough to eat?” he asked.
So the report was the first step in taking stock of what the sector and country needed to do to ensure continued supply of the vegetables forming the staple base of NZ diets.
“Before more houses are placed on fertile and unique growing land and more decisions are made about water we want there to be a pause for breath and some big-picture planning,” Raine said.
