The advice of the Ministry for Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE) to the Commerce and Consumer Affairs Minister David Clark will be to drop the investigation.
Potatoes NZ (PNZ) is reviewing the report, will meet with local processors and consider its response by the April 30 deadline.
PNZ represents four major domestic processors – McCains, Talleys, Mr Chips and Makikihi Fries – who account for 88% of domestic production, along with potato growers.
The industry body made a formal complaint to MBIE last August after frozen fries from Belgium and the Netherlands came into NZ in larger quantities.
It was alleged these displaced and dumped goods were a result of the reduced public demand in the home markets caused by covid-19 lockdowns.
MBIE showed that an average of 15,000 tonnes of frozen fries and wedges were imported annually over the past five financial years and that Australia supplied 50%.
Belgium and the Netherlands were the source of 11% and 18% imports respectively in FY2020, and imports were subject to 5% duty.
Imports traditionally supply about 15% of NZ consumption and local processors could not show that their market shares had reduced.
The conclusion was that no dumping of Belgian fries and wedges had occurred, and evidence of dumping was found by one of three exporters from the Netherlands, but not from the other two.
The company identified was Lamb Weston, with a weighted average margin of 17% below the normal values of its domestic market.
MBIE could not find a significant increase in dumped goods or an indication that was likely to occur in future.
It thought that demand and processing will increase here and in Europe as the pandemic is controlled.
Some price undercutting on the NZ market was observed but there was no current or likely price depression or suppression.
“There is no reliable data on which to base any assessment of the impact of dumped goods on the productivity of the NZ industry,” MBIE said.
