Avocado growers have been told to expect substantial falls in orchard gate returns (OGR) for their fruit harvested this spring and summer, mainly because of avocado oversupply in Australia.
The average price per 5.5kg tray across all sizes will be well down on the average OGRs for the past five years of $23 for fruit that was exported.
Last season was particularly good for growers, who received $26/tray and $42,000/ha OGR across slightly more than 4000ha in production, half of which is in Bay of Plenty.
Primor chief executive John Carroll says the new export season began on September 1, with some air freight to Asian markets and the first shipments to Australian supermarkets. Primor is a partner in the joint venture company Avoco, the majority exporter of avocados.
The domestic season started in July. with attractive prices for consumers in the $1-$2.50 range per ripened fruit.
Industry estimates are for 4.8 million export trays and a need for perhaps as much as 3m domestic sales.
Last season’s figures were a record 8.2m trays, including 5.1m export, of which 4.25m went to Australia, for an overall industry value of $234m.
Smaller volumes were sent to eight Asian markets, headed by Thailand, Taiwan, Singapore, Hong Kong and Malaysia.
Exports were up 1m trays on the previous season despite covid-19 freight disruptions.
Australia took 55% more than it did the previous season.
The combination of good export prices and the high yields per hectare produced the highest OGR in the past decade.
“That was a very good outcome for growers because shipping to Asia was tough and we had planned to send more up there than we did,” Carroll said.
“A greater volume went to Australia, which fortunately was short of fruit.”
This year both Queensland and Western Australia (WA) crops have been heavy, leading to oversupply during autumn and winter and from now to January, when WA fruit is in direct competition with that from NZ.
“The Australian market is very full and we are fortunate that Avoco has maintained a very good relationship with the major supermarkets,” he said.
“NZ supply is somewhat of an insurance policy for them because it is not always like this.
“We are trying to get more into Asian markets but considering the volume NZ needs to sell, it paints a fairly sombre picture.”
Packhouses and exporters have advised growers to pick more for the domestic market, which has resulted in weak pricing early.
NZ Avocado board member Jim Tarawa, representing exporters from Freshmax, says global logistics made it very difficult to serve Asian customers.
“Demand is okay, but their confidence is conservative, taking fruit a month at a time instead of a full season because of the threat of lockdowns,” Tarawa said.
“The position in Australia is better, because we have retail programmes there.
“But all these issues cost money; all the difficulties and frustrations are measured in dollars and cents.”
Tarawa thought the domestic market could take greater volumes and that in the past five or six years the home market had performed well for growers and their packers.
“But it doesn’t take much to oversupply 5m people and the lockdowns have cut demand from independent fruit retailers and foodservice outlets,” he said.
“In summary, this is by no means a disaster, which would be no markets and no transport options – we still have markets and we must be nimble and proactive.”
NZ Avocado chief executive Jen Scoular says parts of the domestic market had been undersupplied in the past, both geographically and seasonally, and that could now be rectified.
Consumption of avocados is growing in homes and as a healthy fruit option during a pandemic.
“We are strongly supporting the NZ market to enable it to take more fruit than last year,” Scoular said.
The value of the domestic market last season was $60m, the highest total in the past decade.
Growth has been steady from $30m to $60m over the past seven years.
Scoular says fruit values slumped in the Australian market during June and July, well before any NZ supplies.
All of our supply channels are adversely affected by logistical problems and she doesn’t expect that position to improve quickly.
“I heard of one ship whose timetable changed four times before our fruit left the Port of Tauranga,” she said.
