Most farmers could plant more trees for shelter or woodlots on 10% of their area without affecting on production, Farm Forestry Association chairman Neil Cullen says.
Likely changes to the ETS or the chance to boost income by selling carbon credits could make forestry investment more attractive and he urges landowners to look at opportunities provided by the Government’s One Billion Trees project.
The project aims to grow the forest estate by 500,000ha in addition to replanting logged sites, which will have little impact on livestock productivity.
Te Uru Rakau (Forestry NZ) head Julie Collins said it is designed to control erosion, reduce sediment loss, provide an alternative source of income, increase biodiversity and sequester carbon.
It also aims to ensure the right trees are planted in the right places so supports planting of indigenous and exotic trees and shrubs.
A $240 million Government fund launched in November as part of the project offers grants for fencing and planting and for owners to follow best practice.
The grants range from $500/ha to $4000/ha, depending on the purpose and the type of tree or shrub being planted to a maximum of 300ha.
The Crown Forestry joint venture project lets landowners lease land to or form a joint venture with the Crown, which pays all the tree establishment and management costs for a minimum of 200ha while paying rent to the landowner, who keeps any carbon credits. Last year 7.5m trees were planted under the scheme.
The scheme is expected to encourage the planting of 20m trees by 2020-21.
Cullen acknowledged the Productivity Commission’s estimate last year that up to 2.8m hectares of trees could be required to offset emissions as part of making NZ carbon neutral by 2050 will frighten some people and mean the disappearance of some rural communities.
“That will mean radical change and require planning on what is going to happen with those trees.”
If the commission’s forecast comes true that will increase the forestry estate by nearly 3m hectares by 2050.
Despite such a potentially significant shift in land use there are no estimates on the economic impact on exports and livestock numbers.
Collins said no such estimates exist but given more than 7000ha a year was converted from forestry to pasture between 2008 and 2016 there is some catch-up planting required.
“Currently, net deforestation is declining and Te Uru Rakau expects the trend will switch to net afforestation in the near future.”
In 2016 12.1m hectares or 45.3% of New Zealand’s land area was used for agriculture or horticulture, 2m hectares for forestry, of which 96% is privately owned, and 7.8m hectares is in native forest.
Collins estimates 61m trees were planted in 2018, of which 7.5m were funded by the Government through afforestation and erosion control grants.
Planting is expected to reach 100m trees a year by 2020-21 driven by the billion tree grants, a likely increase in the carbon price and bright prospects for timber.
Collins said the intention in increasing forestry is not to displace livestock.
“It’s about reintegrating trees, both native and exotic species, into our landscapes to create real benefits for all New Zealanders.
“This can make a positive contribution to rural communities through helping landowners, including farmers, to diversify their income and improve land productivity.”
The commission said agricultural greenhouse gas emissions need to fall 30% for NZ to become a zero emitter and it calculates between 1.3m and 2.8m hectares of new forestry will need to be planted on sheep and beef country to offset emissions.
That is part of what it calls a substantial transformation to lower carbon emissions through land use change, improved farming practices and technology.
In a report lacking any financial analysis of the impact of swapping livestock for trees let alone the future of rural communities, it did concede such an increase in forestry will come at a cost.
“Increased forestry may also lead to falls in the rural population and loss of associated infrastructure such as schools,” it warned.
Commission chairman Murray Sherwin said at concerns of rural depopulation were real at the time but new permanent forest planting will be in more remote areas.
“There has to be change and there will be some disruption in some rural communities,” he said.
Cullen said not all new plantings will be exotics with the funds encouraging use of native species.
There are plans to plant native woodlots to create a corridor for birdlife between Banks Peninsula and the Southern Alps in Canterbury and Operation Crimson encourages conservation planting.
Environmental issues with logging slash following severe storms on the North Island’s east coast last year are likely to mean more rules on loggers, such as limiting the species planted in areas where logging will be risky.
“I can see restrictions on felling in the future where you won’t be able to fell say 500ha in one block all at once because of the risk of a cyclone coming in when the land is most vulnerable in the phase between harvest and four years old.”
