The first $7/kg forecasts for next season’s milk price will also swing farmers to target covers and cow condition as priorities rather than pushing autumn milk, AgFirst Waikato partner James Allen said.
Dairy farmers will focus more on setting up for next season with good pasture covers and cow condition.
Rain now would offer the potential to milk to early May but he does not expect volumes to exceed those of autumn 2018.
Farmers might also dry off the lighter cows at the end of March and keep the rest milking until May.
January’s milk production flourished on higher cow condition and good pasture grown in December but momentum has fallen in the six weeks since, he said.
Nationwide January production was up 8% and year-to-date 4.5%.
Hamilton had 180mm of rain in December, 32mm in January, 18mm in February and 22mm in March so far, MetService records show.
While Waikato farmland still looked green, pasture covers are way down.
“I would call it dry but not a drought,” he said.
“We need rain to get autumn into gear.”
Maize yields are okay given the larger leaf area grown earlier in the season followed by low grain fill since Christmas.
Palm kernel monitoring through the fat evaluation index (FEI) is now moderating milk production, Allen said.
Many farmers are getting FEI warnings from Fonterra and managing the intake accordingly.
Cow condition scores were good at the start of summer and Waikato farmers have made twice as much grass silage as usual during the wet spring.
Many farmers are now feeding more than half of the cows’ diet as supplements.
“I was on a farm yesterday that was feeding 4kg DM/cow/day grass and 10kg of supplements so feed reserves get chewed up quickly,” he said.
NIWA’s standardised precipitation index (SPI) indicator of drought for the past 60 days shows Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty, Taranaki, Manawatu, Marlborough, Nelson, Buller and Grey classified as moderately, severely or extremely dry.
Canterbury, the dairy powerhouse, fared well for rain since Christmas and irrigation has assisted in steady pasture and summer crop growth.
Ashburton had 80mm of rain in the past 30 days, including the historical average of 60mm in February.
Dairy farmers there might be able to maximise milk production in autumn and set themselves up well for next season.
DairyNZ farm performance general manager Vanessa Winning said Canterbury farmers will budget in the cost of feed where irrigation is obtainable and might be able to keep milking.
Canterbury’s milk production is 5-6% ahead of last season and the province has good prospects of maintaining that increase to the end of the season.
A payout difference between this season and next will not have to be factored into budgets.
Without 70-100mm of rain elsewhere in the dairying regions by the end of March most farmers will start drying off, Winning said.
A Fonterra spokeswoman said a vast majority of supply farms have met the FEI measures and avoided any demerits.
“Farmers have taken advantage of good spring growing conditions and significant quantities of grass silage as well as above-average maize and brassica crop yields.
“As milk production slows in the latter half of the season it becomes even more important that every drop of milk can be manufactured into the products our customers need.
“Farmers are working with our Farm Source support team and their rural professionals to ensure they can meet the new FEI levels.”
On Friday Fonterra lowered its milk collection forecast for the season for the second time in two weeks.
It now expects to collect 1510 million kilograms of milksolids for the season. Milk collection was 1505m kg MS last season.
Fonterra said the dry weather is particularly acute in the North Island, affecting production in the second half of the season.
It will reduce quantities on Global Dairy Trade during the next four months.
