Whole milk powder prices rose as much as 6% for contracts for September shipment and the WMP price index rose 2.6% across all grades and delivery times.
Skim milk powder prices dropped an average 4.5% and the recent record milk fat product prices lost a small amount of value – anhydrous milk fat was down 3.5% and butter down 0.1%.
The GDT index across all products dropped 0.4% and the market had maintained a holding pattern that would last until the New Zealand spring, ASB rural economist Nathan Penny said.
“It is a good time for market watchers to take a holiday as we expect little change in the dairy outlook over coming months,” he said.
Because the winter months accounted for only 7% of NZ’s milk production, the markets did not tend to move much either way.
“In this sense, no news is good news. The global dairy market outlook remains firm with supply and demand largely in balance.”
AgriHQ dairy analyst Susan Kilsby said the GDT results pushed up her 2017-18 milk price forecast by 2c to $6.70/kg.
The NZX Dairy Derivatives market had a reasonably flat price outlook for the rest of the year and milk price futures for September 2018 edged up 2c to $6.50, also the Fonterra forecast.
Westpac economists expected a modest fall in dairy prices over the rest of the year as global milk production bounced back from last year’s depressed levels.
“Global demand continues to grow at a subdued pace and stockpiles of milk powder remain substantial, especially in Europe,” they said.
