Fonterra SMP was offered and sold across five delivery months from November to March and the prices paid fell by 4.5% to 9%.
The EU might not start 2018 with a fixed intervention price (currently €1690 or about US$2000 a tonne) but leave the European Commission to run with a tender system, without either a fixed price or a guaranteed price.
The intervention period for 2017 ended in September and was not scheduled to re-open until February, in the lead-up to the European spring when, theoretically, another 109,000 tonnes could be taken in at a fixed price.
When the intervention period closed world prices of SMP fell, AgriHQ dairy analyst Susan Kilsby said.
Opinion was divided in Europe whether the commission could change the rules or would have time to pass new regulations.
But the uncertainty had weighed on GDT prices, Kilsby said.
The biggest uncertainty remained what the EU would do with the nearly 400,000 tonnes of SMP already in stock.
It averaged 18 months of age and was saleable up to two years though apparently the bags were not date stamped.
“The market expects the large EU stocks will end up in aid programmes or in the feed sector because no-one will pay full market rate any longer,” she said.
European Commissioner for agriculture and rural development Phil Hogan said intervention would be operated in a more controlled manner and the commission could decide what volume should be accepted and at what price.
EU dairy companies had substantially boosted SMP exports this year, achieving a rise of 48% in the first eight months with the biggest increases going to China, Mexico and Algeria.
