Farmers are worried about environmental, banking, farm value, alternative food, drought and disease pressures.
Curiously, considering the downbeat mood, the market signals are good right now, whether it be solid milk prices, relatively low costs of production, demand around the world, low greenhouse gas emission intensity, struggling competitors in other countries and synthetics proving harder than first thought.
Projections say 10 billion people by 2050 will need twice as much dairy foods as are produced now.
“The Irish dairy industry was poised to jump after the removal of quotas five years ago but is bogged down in greenhouse gases, nitrogen, labour shortages and bobby calves.
“All the same issues but we have 20 years’ head start.”
Thorrold said most of those matters are outside the control of individual farmers.
In their control are things like lifting farm profitability, improving water quality and reducing gases.
“We need to make progress on all three, together, because going backwards on any of them is not a 10-year solution.”
Methane is now being treated differently than carbon dioxide by lawmakers.
“That’s a breakthrough for the pastoral sector because it means methane doesn’t need to go to zero.
“The Zero Carbon Act means we have to cut 10% of methane by 2030 and we need a plan to achieve that.
“In the meantime, all pastoral farms will need farm environment plans by 2025 and on-farm carbon offsetting will be allowed.”
Thorrold said the obvious route to 10% less methane is feeding animals less and some land-use change.
“If the only option we have in 2030 is to pull 10% of feed out of the system then it can be done.”
He wants farmers to let go of the fear of the target and figure out how it will be achieved.
Thorrold said large nitrogen leaching reductions will hit farms in priority catchments.
The farm plans will encourage good farm practices and riparian planting and wetlands.
“When we do the right things in the right place it makes a substantial difference in water quality.”
Surplus bought nitrogen is a good predictor of nitrate leaching though that is different for every farm.
So reducing that surplus is a good start along with getting cows and their urine off pasture at critical times.
Already there are tools like Ecotain, Spikey and low-nitrogen genetics while DairyNZ is spending millions of dollars of farmers’ levy money on mitigation research.
Thorrold said a 7% return on assets at a $6.35/kg payout is realistically achievable, makes debt profitable and creates options for the farmers.
The Northland average is 5% return on assets and the Northland Agricultural Research Farm achieves 7%.
