If the experts are to be believed everyone in the dairy sector worldwide is holding their breath while the markets tread water and people wait to see which way to jump.
Hence, Fonterra’s extremely broad prediction range for next season.
The good news, and I use those words in the sense it’s nowhere near as bad as some feared, is the mid-point starts with a six. It’s $6.15 to be exact and that’s what initial payments will be based on.
However, that $5.40 to $6.90 spread tells us there’s a lot of, I was going to say uncertainty but that doesn’t really describe it. It’s more than people being uncertain. They just don’t know.
And if all the experts including those in the industry as well as market analysts, economists and futures traders don’t know then the rest us are left well and truly in the dark.
And what’s more we can’t control or influence what will happen in global commodity markets with the Europeans and Americans setting up various Government support schemes to see their farmers through. They are much bigger hitters than New Zealand so they and Chinese buyers will determine what happens.
However, we are coming off a good payout year and we know things are not likely to be as bright this season.
We know the loss of the food service sector is a big blow. Even when restaurants reopen their patronage might be down because a lot of people have lost their jobs. People are still eating at home but the intelligence tells us they are going for the cheaper options when buying food.
All this brings me to the word sustainable.
It’s probably got a bit of a bad reputation in the rural world because it seems to be associated closely and solely with the environment and notions of farmers not being nice to it.
I think farmers should reclaim the word and make it their own again.
Farmers have always aimed for sustainability.
They get through each year with the aim of having the farm in a condition to carry on the following year. Each generation farms with the aim of handing over to the next. Again, that means sustainability.
Now there’s nothing wrong with associating sustainability with the environment, biodiversity and clean water.
But we must make sure farms are also financially sustainable. If they are not then who is going to pay for all the other things?
We need dairy farmers and others to succeed, now more so than ever.
It’s not much use cleaning up the environment, and most rural people accept things must change because, once again, they have remained sustainable though the generations by embracing change and using things like bullocks pulling ploughs, then tractors and now drones and computers.
Industry leaders are telling us they now have the ear of the Government and the politicians are listening and are willing to work with farmers to get things done rather than just coming up with ideals and imposing rules.
So now’s the time for farmers to keep reminding them sustainability entails financial survival.
Farms are no good to anyone if there are no farmers left standing as a result of sustainability.
